practically nobody uses these options (so there’s a huge available market, if there is potential product-market-fit. Also, it doesn’t seem like this will “simply happen” if none of us picks it up)
More than zero companies DO use them (google), which is some evidence for potential product-market-fit, more evidence than one usually gets
EAs & Rationalists have domain expertise here: People in our community are paying attention, participating, and advancing the cutting edge of the field of prediction markets
My next steps would be something like:
Get up to date about the idea of prediction markets within companies, and in parallel:
Talk to companies, try finding a specific thing they’d like to have a prediction market about, and what their pushbacks are (why do they say “no”?)
“Better Twitter” that promotes high quality conversations:
Disclaimer: This comment of mine might cause harm
If this comment leads you to try building a “Better Twitter” without acknowledging what makes this problem hard (and so many people to try and fail at it), and without some general idea of how to do better (beyond “startups are hard, but it will be ok!”), then this comment has harmed you. I hope you don’t go down that path
The comparative advantage of EA/Lesswrong
We already have a critical mass of people having a lot of unusually high quality online conversations every day (in Lesswrong and in the EA forum), including disagreeing with each other. Getting such a critical mass is a huge problem for almost anyone else who wants to try this
TL;DR: Subscribe to this comment to get notified about the most promising ideas
“the most promising” is according to my own judgement.
Please don’t reply to this comment yourself, but feel free to start your own list
How to subscribe:
Click the ”...” on the top right:
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Also,
If you care about promising EA Software projects, consider getting in touch with me
Even just to let me know you’re a person that cares about this thing
Adding: This comment was requested by yet another potential EA CTO who I didn’t know beforehand and am happy to hear from
A better Swapcard; EA might be your first client
Discuss here
Prediction markets for using inside organizations (link, please discuss there) :
Probably useful if figured out how to do it right (since prediction markets are amazing in general)
Currently some options are available,
practically nobody uses these options (so there’s a huge available market, if there is potential product-market-fit. Also, it doesn’t seem like this will “simply happen” if none of us picks it up)
More than zero companies DO use them (google), which is some evidence for potential product-market-fit, more evidence than one usually gets
EAs & Rationalists have domain expertise here: People in our community are paying attention, participating, and advancing the cutting edge of the field of prediction markets
My next steps would be something like:
Get up to date about the idea of prediction markets within companies, and in parallel:
Talk to companies, try finding a specific thing they’d like to have a prediction market about, and what their pushbacks are (why do they say “no”?)
“Better Twitter” that promotes high quality conversations:
Disclaimer: This comment of mine might cause harm
If this comment leads you to try building a “Better Twitter” without acknowledging what makes this problem hard (and so many people to try and fail at it), and without some general idea of how to do better (beyond “startups are hard, but it will be ok!”), then this comment has harmed you. I hope you don’t go down that path
The comparative advantage of EA/Lesswrong
We already have a critical mass of people having a lot of unusually high quality online conversations every day (in Lesswrong and in the EA forum), including disagreeing with each other. Getting such a critical mass is a huge problem for almost anyone else who wants to try this
The Lesswrong dev team is already working on this problem.
How I’d approach this
Talk to the lesswrong team, my prior is that they’ll have suggestions that I can’t guess
Probably gradually turn lesswrong+EAForum into something better instead of starting from scratch? I’m not sure
Slowly expand to more people`