Strongly upvoted. This comment provides solid evidence in support of its argument, and led me to substantially raise my estimate of the physical risks involved in adoption. (Edit: This holds even in light of AGB’s reply; as he points out, the numbers on risk are still quite high even if you make an adjustment of the type he recommends.)
I also appreciate Habryka’s willingness to speak out in favor of a comment that was heavily downvoted and moderated, just as I appreciated Dale’s good intentions in his initial comment.
I found Habryka’s supporting evidence to be more relevant than Dale’s, and his argument clearer — such that it meets the standards of rigor I was hoping for given the topic at hand.
*****
My biggest update here is on the rate of sibling abuse, which I hadn’t realized was nearly as high as it seems to be. From page 25 of this report:
The report’s definition of “severe assault” (ignore the bit about parents, it seems like sibling violence was measured in the same way):
I’ll note that this still leaves room for interpretation. Both of my siblings hit me with objects when I was growing up, leaving marks or bruises in some cases, but I’m still glad they were born, and we get along well as adults. (We also got along well as children, most of the time.)
I’d be really interested to see data like this broken down by the type/severity of violence. I’d guess that a substantial portion of that “37 percent” number comes from things most people would perceive as normal (e.g. a 7-year-old punches her 8-year-old brother in the arm, a 10-year-old hits his twin brother with a Wiffle bat). But I could be wrong, and even much smaller numbers for “truly severe” incidents could mean a lot more risk than I’d expected.
*****
Despite this update, “never adopt” still feels extreme to me, given the chance of a very positive outcome (a child has a loving family who helps to support them, rather than no family) and the high satisfaction rates of adoptive parents (keeping in mind that those numbers are likely to be skewed by a bias towards reporting satisfaction).
Some factors which seem like they could, in tandem, sharply reduce the risk Habryka identifies:
Adopting a child younger than your current children
Adopting a girl rather than a boy (the above report found that boys were more likely than girls to commit violent acts, but I don’t know how big the difference is)
Doing everything you can to learn whether a child has a history of violent behavior (if a 15-year-old has a totally clean record, that seems like useful evidence)
But I’m not confident about the impact of any of these.
Strongly upvoted. This comment provides solid evidence in support of its argument, and led me to substantially raise my estimate of the physical risks involved in adoption. (Edit: This holds even in light of AGB’s reply; as he points out, the numbers on risk are still quite high even if you make an adjustment of the type he recommends.)
I also appreciate Habryka’s willingness to speak out in favor of a comment that was heavily downvoted and moderated, just as I appreciated Dale’s good intentions in his initial comment.
I found Habryka’s supporting evidence to be more relevant than Dale’s, and his argument clearer — such that it meets the standards of rigor I was hoping for given the topic at hand.
*****
My biggest update here is on the rate of sibling abuse, which I hadn’t realized was nearly as high as it seems to be. From page 25 of this report:
The report’s definition of “severe assault” (ignore the bit about parents, it seems like sibling violence was measured in the same way):
I’ll note that this still leaves room for interpretation. Both of my siblings hit me with objects when I was growing up, leaving marks or bruises in some cases, but I’m still glad they were born, and we get along well as adults. (We also got along well as children, most of the time.)
I’d be really interested to see data like this broken down by the type/severity of violence. I’d guess that a substantial portion of that “37 percent” number comes from things most people would perceive as normal (e.g. a 7-year-old punches her 8-year-old brother in the arm, a 10-year-old hits his twin brother with a Wiffle bat). But I could be wrong, and even much smaller numbers for “truly severe” incidents could mean a lot more risk than I’d expected.
*****
Despite this update, “never adopt” still feels extreme to me, given the chance of a very positive outcome (a child has a loving family who helps to support them, rather than no family) and the high satisfaction rates of adoptive parents (keeping in mind that those numbers are likely to be skewed by a bias towards reporting satisfaction).
Some factors which seem like they could, in tandem, sharply reduce the risk Habryka identifies:
Adopting a child younger than your current children
Adopting a girl rather than a boy (the above report found that boys were more likely than girls to commit violent acts, but I don’t know how big the difference is)
Doing everything you can to learn whether a child has a history of violent behavior (if a 15-year-old has a totally clean record, that seems like useful evidence)
But I’m not confident about the impact of any of these.