As a sanity check, do you understand what it means, from a Bayesian perspective, for a one-off bet to be a “good deal” in expectation? If so, can you explain it in your own words?
(just wanted to quickly check if the issue is more with big futures specifically, or with Bayesian reasoning in general).
I don’t think they can answer your question, at least with the stipulation of coming from the “Bayesian perspective”. I think that the meaning of that stipulation is the thing they are unsure about.
I think you calculate expected value the same in any case, frequentist or Bayesian, it’s just the probabilities multiplied by the values?
I think Bayesian thinking involves constructing or updating the probabilities or underlying beliefs or parameters for them?
As a sanity check, do you understand what it means, from a Bayesian perspective, for a one-off bet to be a “good deal” in expectation? If so, can you explain it in your own words?
(just wanted to quickly check if the issue is more with big futures specifically, or with Bayesian reasoning in general).
I don’t think they can answer your question, at least with the stipulation of coming from the “Bayesian perspective”. I think that the meaning of that stipulation is the thing they are unsure about.
I think you calculate expected value the same in any case, frequentist or Bayesian, it’s just the probabilities multiplied by the values?
I think Bayesian thinking involves constructing or updating the probabilities or underlying beliefs or parameters for them?
“probabilities” have a different meaning to the average Bayesian than the average frequentist, I think.