Even a slow takeoff! If there is recursive self-improvement at work at all, on any scale, you wouldn’t see anything like this. You’d see moderate-to-major disruptions in geopolitics, and many or all technology sectors being revolutionized simultaneously.
This scenario is “no takeoff at all”—advancement happening only at the speed of economic growth.
You seem to have an unusual definition of slow takeoff. If I take on the definition in this post (probably the most influential post by a proponent of slow / continuous takeoff), there’s supposed to be an 8-year doubling before a 2-year doubling. An 8-year doubling corresponds to an average of 9% growth each year (roughly double the current amount). Let’s say that we actually reach the 9% growth halfway through that doubling; then there are 4 years before the first 2-year doubling even starts. If you define AGI to be the AI technology that’s around at 9% growth (which, let’s recall, is doubling the growth rate, so it’s quite powerful), then there are > 6 years left until the singularity (4 years from the rest of the 8-year doubling, 2 years from the first 2-year doubling, which in turn happens before the start of the first 0.5 year doubling, which in turn is before the singularity).
Presumably you just think slow takeoff of this form is completely implausible, but I’d summarize that as either “Czynski is very confident in fast / discontinuous takeoff” or “Czynski uses definitions that are different from the ones other people are using”.
Again, that would produce moderate-to-major disruptions in geopolitics. The first doubling with any recursive self-improvement at work being eight years is, also, pretty implausible, because RSI implies more discontinuity than that, but that doesn’t matter here, as even that scenario would cause massive disruption.
Even a slow takeoff! If there is recursive self-improvement at work at all, on any scale, you wouldn’t see anything like this. You’d see moderate-to-major disruptions in geopolitics, and many or all technology sectors being revolutionized simultaneously.
This scenario is “no takeoff at all”—advancement happening only at the speed of economic growth.
Sorry for the late reply.
You seem to have an unusual definition of slow takeoff. If I take on the definition in this post (probably the most influential post by a proponent of slow / continuous takeoff), there’s supposed to be an 8-year doubling before a 2-year doubling. An 8-year doubling corresponds to an average of 9% growth each year (roughly double the current amount). Let’s say that we actually reach the 9% growth halfway through that doubling; then there are 4 years before the first 2-year doubling even starts. If you define AGI to be the AI technology that’s around at 9% growth (which, let’s recall, is doubling the growth rate, so it’s quite powerful), then there are > 6 years left until the singularity (4 years from the rest of the 8-year doubling, 2 years from the first 2-year doubling, which in turn happens before the start of the first 0.5 year doubling, which in turn is before the singularity).
Presumably you just think slow takeoff of this form is completely implausible, but I’d summarize that as either “Czynski is very confident in fast / discontinuous takeoff” or “Czynski uses definitions that are different from the ones other people are using”.
Again, that would produce moderate-to-major disruptions in geopolitics. The first doubling with any recursive self-improvement at work being eight years is, also, pretty implausible, because RSI implies more discontinuity than that, but that doesn’t matter here, as even that scenario would cause massive disruption.