An alternative view is that in 15 years’ time we’ll still be constrained by a career capital gap...
I think there’s a strain of apocalyptic thinking operating in some parts of the EA & rationality communities when it comes to career planning.
e.g. if you become emotionally convinced that AGI risk is a real thing, and that there’s a substantial probability of a short AGI timeline (short = in the next 10 years), then thinking about your longterm career prospects can feel absurd.
This dynamic probably makes it feel even more important that you start contributing now, because you believe that the window for making a meaningful contribution is very short.
This just seems like an unusually bad joke (as he also clarifies later). I think the phenomenon you’re talking about is real (although I’m unsure as to the extent) but wouldn’t use this as evidence.
I think there’s a strain of apocalyptic thinking operating in some parts of the EA & rationality communities when it comes to career planning.
e.g. if you become emotionally convinced that AGI risk is a real thing, and that there’s a substantial probability of a short AGI timeline (short = in the next 10 years), then thinking about your longterm career prospects can feel absurd.
This dynamic probably makes it feel even more important that you start contributing now, because you believe that the window for making a meaningful contribution is very short.
cf. This recent take by Eliezer
This just seems like an unusually bad joke (as he also clarifies later). I think the phenomenon you’re talking about is real (although I’m unsure as to the extent) but wouldn’t use this as evidence.
I think he’s being Straussian.