You’re right that growth was flatter in previous years (though a lot of metrics -e.g. Forum metrics - grew a lot in 2020 too).
On an organizational level, we consolidated in 2019, figured out our strategy and narrowed our scope in 2020. At the beginning of 2021 we had a clear strategy and we got more data on our impact from OP’s survey. That made me confident that we should switch into expansion mode (in terms of headcount).
More strategically, I think the community is now better set up to accommodate growth—e.g. many more of the core ideas are written up and shared widely, and there are more orgs doing a lot of hiring. So I think we can grow the number of people in the community somewhat quicker at a given quality level than we could in 2018. I don’t think the community should grow too quickly, but I think we should grow more quickly than we did in the last couple of years.
Ah, maybe I was confused because “level” sounded like “total size” to me, whereas I think you mean “why is this rate of growth right?”. Is that right?
My current best guess is that we should be targeting roughly 40% growth, which is quite a bit faster than Ben Todd’s estimates for previous years. (This is growth of highly-engaged EAs: I think we could grow top of funnel or effective-giving-style brands more quickly.)
The main reason that I think we shouldn’t grow too much quicker than this is that I think there are some important things (ways of thinking, norms, some of the fuzzier and cutting edge research areas) that are best transferred via apprenticeships of some sort (e.g. taking on a junior role at an org, getting mentorship, doing a series of internships). If you think it takes a couple of years of apprenticeship before people are ready to train up people, then this puts a bit of an upper limit on growth. And if we grow too much faster than that, I worry that some important norms or ways of thinking (e.g. really questioning your beliefs, reasoning transparency, collaborative discussion norms) don’t get passed on, which significantly reduces the value of the community’s work.
The main reason that I think, despite that, we should grow at about 40% (which is pretty quick compared to the past) is that if we grow too much slower than this, I just don’t see us reaching the sort of scale that we might need to address the problems we’re facing (some of which have deadlines, maybe in a decade or two).
It feels like CEA has been avoiding growing previously and now has started. Am I wrong about that? If not, what changed?
You’re right that growth was flatter in previous years (though a lot of metrics -e.g. Forum metrics - grew a lot in 2020 too).
On an organizational level, we consolidated in 2019, figured out our strategy and narrowed our scope in 2020. At the beginning of 2021 we had a clear strategy and we got more data on our impact from OP’s survey. That made me confident that we should switch into expansion mode (in terms of headcount).
More strategically, I think the community is now better set up to accommodate growth—e.g. many more of the core ideas are written up and shared widely, and there are more orgs doing a lot of hiring. So I think we can grow the number of people in the community somewhat quicker at a given quality level than we could in 2018. I don’t think the community should grow too quickly, but I think we should grow more quickly than we did in the last couple of years.
So I think the thing I don’t understand is why you think we shouldn’t grow the community too quickly. Why is this the right level?
And thanks for being so generous with your time here.
Ah, maybe I was confused because “level” sounded like “total size” to me, whereas I think you mean “why is this rate of growth right?”. Is that right?
My current best guess is that we should be targeting roughly 40% growth, which is quite a bit faster than Ben Todd’s estimates for previous years. (This is growth of highly-engaged EAs: I think we could grow top of funnel or effective-giving-style brands more quickly.)
The main reason that I think we shouldn’t grow too much quicker than this is that I think there are some important things (ways of thinking, norms, some of the fuzzier and cutting edge research areas) that are best transferred via apprenticeships of some sort (e.g. taking on a junior role at an org, getting mentorship, doing a series of internships). If you think it takes a couple of years of apprenticeship before people are ready to train up people, then this puts a bit of an upper limit on growth. And if we grow too much faster than that, I worry that some important norms or ways of thinking (e.g. really questioning your beliefs, reasoning transparency, collaborative discussion norms) don’t get passed on, which significantly reduces the value of the community’s work.
The main reason that I think, despite that, we should grow at about 40% (which is pretty quick compared to the past) is that if we grow too much slower than this, I just don’t see us reaching the sort of scale that we might need to address the problems we’re facing (some of which have deadlines, maybe in a decade or two).