“Mass Animal Welfare social change has at least a 40% chance of occurring before TAI”
(Social change, not necessarily material or policy change—hard to specify what qualifies, but maybe quadrupling the number of individual donors, or the sizes and frequency of protests.)
IMO, merely 4x-ing the number of individual donors or the frequency of protests isn’t near the threshold for “mass social change” in the animal welfare area.
Yes, you are probably right. I just threw that out as a stand-in for what I’m looking for. Ending all factory farming is too high a bar (and might just happen due to paper clipping instead!).
Maybe 10-20x-ing donor numbers is closer? I’d reference survey data instead, but public opinions are already way ahead of actual motivations. But maybe “cited among top 10 moral problems of the day” would work. Could also be numbers of vegans.
“Mass Animal Welfare social change has at least a 40% chance of occurring before TAI”
(Social change, not necessarily material or policy change—hard to specify what qualifies, but maybe quadrupling the number of individual donors, or the sizes and frequency of protests.)
IMO, merely 4x-ing the number of individual donors or the frequency of protests isn’t near the threshold for “mass social change” in the animal welfare area.
Yes, you are probably right. I just threw that out as a stand-in for what I’m looking for. Ending all factory farming is too high a bar (and might just happen due to paper clipping instead!).
Maybe 10-20x-ing donor numbers is closer? I’d reference survey data instead, but public opinions are already way ahead of actual motivations. But maybe “cited among top 10 moral problems of the day” would work. Could also be numbers of vegans.
Hey Dylan, would you mind putting each of these in different answers so people can vote separately?