Toby Tremlett🔹

• Toby Tremlett🔹 5 Feb 2026 14:24 UTC

  4 points

  0 ∶ 0

  on: Don’t overup­date on evolu­tion­ary cost-bal­anc­ing arguments

  I’m curating this post.

  This seems to me to be a persuasive selection of considerations against a notion I didn’t realise I held. In that sense, it’s directly valuable.
  
  Also, I have always admired Lukas’s clear style and careful argument, and it’s great to see a post from him on the Forum again.

• Toby Tremlett🔹 4 Feb 2026 13:24 UTC

  4 points

  0 ∶ 0

  in reply to: Toby Tremlett🔹’s comment on: to­bytrem’s Quick takes

  Thanks for the comments @Clara Torres Latorre 🔸 @NickLaing @Aaron Gertler 🔸 @Ben Stevenson. This is all useful to hear. I should have an update later this month.

• Toby Tremlett🔹 4 Feb 2026 10:19 UTC

  4 points

  0 ∶ 0

  in reply to: david_reinstein’s comment on: Lay­ing Some Cause-Pri­ori­ti­za­tion Ground­work for Digi­tal Minds

  Cheekily butting in here to +1 David’s point—I don’t currently think it’s currently reasonable to assume that there is a relationship between the inner workings of an AI system which might lead to valenced experience, and its textual output.
  
  For me I think this is based on the idea that when you ask a question, there isn’t a sense in which an LLM ‘introspects’. I don’t subscribe to the reductive view that LLMs are merely souped up autocorrect, but they do have something in common. An LLM role-plays whatever conversation it finds itself in. They have long been capable of role-playing ‘I’m conscious, help’ conversations, as well as ‘I’m just a tool built by OpenAI’ conversations. I can’t imagine any evidence coming from LLM self-reports which isn’t undermined by this fact.
  
  

• Toby Tremlett🔹 2 Feb 2026 14:07 UTC

  10 points

  1 ∶ 3

  on: to­bytrem’s Quick takes

  Thanks to everyone who voted for our next debate week topic! Final votes were locked in at 9am this morning.

  We can’t announce a winner immediately, because the highest karma topic (and perhaps some of the others) touches on issues related to our politics on the EA Forum policy. Once we’ve clarified which topics we would be able to run, we’ll be able to announce a winner.

  Once we have, I’ll work on honing the exact wording. I’ll write a post with a few options, so that you can have input into the exact version we end up discussing.

  PS: Apologies for the delay here — in retrospect, I should have checked on adherence to our policy before allowing voting. In the now very likely event that we cannot have the highest karma discussion on the EA Forum, I’d remind you that this is not the only place for EA-related discussions on the internet — Substack and Twitter do not have our politics policy.

  What links here?

  • Vote on our next de­bate week (CLOSED) by Toby Tremlett🔹 (27 Jan 2026 9:15 UTC; 33 points)

The Scal­ing Series Dis­cus­sion Thread: with Toby Ord

• Toby Tremlett🔹 30 Jan 2026 12:45 UTC

  6 points

  0 ∶ 0

  on: Every Fo­rum Post on EA Ca­reer Choice & Job Search

  I curated this because it’s a really useful document, and a fantastic community service. Thanks Tristan!

• Toby Tremlett🔹 30 Jan 2026 9:29 UTC

  2 points

  1 ∶ 0

  in reply to: Toby Tremlett🔹’s comment on: Pro­pose a de­bate topic—I’ll run one

  My plan is to make the redrafting public as well—current idea is that I’ll write a post with some options, get comments, and then decide how to phrase the statement based on input.

• Toby Tremlett🔹 30 Jan 2026 9:15 UTC

  2 points

  0 ∶ 0

  in reply to: tylermjohn’s comment on: Pro­pose a de­bate topic—I’ll run one

  Maybe- how would that work in a full sentence?
  General point—we’d probably want to also change ‘urgent’ (bit ambiguous) and ‘more traditional longtermist concerns’ (which?)

• Toby Tremlett🔹 28 Jan 2026 15:31 UTC

  2 points

  0 ∶ 0

  in reply to: Shivani 🪷’s comment on: Open thread: 2026 Q1 (Jan­uary—March)

  Hey Shivani! Welcome to the EA Forum!
  I’m Toby, from the EA Forum team. Let me know if you have any questions about the Forum (or EA), are looking for something to read, or would like feedback on a draft,
  Cheers,
  Toby

• Toby Tremlett🔹 28 Jan 2026 15:27 UTC

  2 points

  0 ∶ 0

  in reply to: Andrew Myerscough’s comment on: Open thread: 2026 Q1 (Jan­uary—March)

  Thanks great to hear Andrew, welcome to the EA Forum!

• Toby Tremlett🔹 28 Jan 2026 15:27 UTC

  2 points

  1 ∶ 0

  in reply to: ladyjedi’s comment on: Open thread: 2026 Q1 (Jan­uary—March)

  Hey Karen Maria, welcome to the EA Forum! Thanks for joining us.
  I’m Toby, from the EA Forum team. If you have any questions, I’m happy to answer them. If you haven’t already listened to it, I’d recommend the 80,000 Hours podcast.
  Let me know if you’d like specific kind of recommendations, I have an extensive knowledge of EA Forum posts :)
  Cheers,
  Toby

• Toby Tremlett🔹 28 Jan 2026 14:41 UTC

  6 points

  3 ∶ 0

  on: Why I re­ject the longter­mist ar­gu­ment against ac­cel­er­at­ing AI

  Unlike an asteroid impact, which leaves behind a lifeless or barely habitable world, the AI systems that destroyed humanity would presumably continue to exist and function. These AI systems would likely go on to build their own civilization, and that AI civilization could itself eventually expand outward and colonize the cosmos.

  This is by no means certain. For example we should still be worried about extinction via misuse, which could kill off humans before AI is developed enough to be self-replicating/​ autonomous. For example, the development of bioweapons. Yes, it is unlikely these cause extinction, but if they do, no humans means no AI (after all the power-plants fail). Seems to imply moving forward with a lot of caution.

Vote on our next de­bate week (CLOSED)

• Toby Tremlett🔹 27 Jan 2026 9:12 UTC

  21 points

  2 ∶ 1

  on: Vote on our next de­bate week (Un­til Mon­day)

  “In expectation, work to prevent the use of weapons of mass destruction (nuclear weapons, bio-engineered viruses, and perhaps new AI-powered weapons) as funded by Longview Philanthropy (Emerging Challenges Fund) and Founders Pledge (Global Catastrophic Risks Fund) is more effective at saving lives than Givewell’s top charities.”

• Toby Tremlett🔹 27 Jan 2026 9:12 UTC

  20 points

  0 ∶ 0

  on: Vote on our next de­bate week (Un­til Mon­day)

  “Conditional on avoiding existential catastrophes, the vast majority of future value depends on whether humanity implements a comprehensive reflection process (e.g., long reflection or coherent extrapolated volition)”

• Toby Tremlett🔹 27 Jan 2026 9:12 UTC

  23 points

  1 ∶ 2

  on: Vote on our next de­bate week (Un­til Mon­day)

  “EA focuses too much on AI”

• Toby Tremlett🔹 27 Jan 2026 9:12 UTC

  36 points

  0 ∶ 0

  on: Vote on our next de­bate week (Un­til Mon­day)

  “Policy or institutional approaches to AI Safety are currently more effective than technical alignment work”

• Toby Tremlett🔹 27 Jan 2026 9:12 UTC

  28 points

  0 ∶ 0

  on: Vote on our next de­bate week (Un­til Mon­day)

  “By default, the world where AI goes well for humans will also go well for other sentient beings”

• Toby Tremlett🔹 27 Jan 2026 9:12 UTC

  17 points

  1 ∶ 0

  on: Vote on our next de­bate week (Un­til Mon­day)

  “Individual donors shouldn’t diversify their donations”

• Toby Tremlett🔹 27 Jan 2026 9:12 UTC

  17 points

  3 ∶ 0

  on: Vote on our next de­bate week (Un­til Mon­day)

  “Farmed animal advocacy currently underinvests in anticipating future policy and industry shifts relative to responding to current harms.”