“Conditional on avoiding existential catastrophes, the vast majority of future value depends on whether humanity implements a comprehensive reflection process (e.g., long reflection or coherent extrapolated volition)”
I made a more extensive argument of why I think this may be the case here.
Essentially, we cannot expect to ‘stumble’ into a great future. Without a comprehensive reflection process to navigate complex strategic uncertainties (e.g. here and here), we risk surviving but failing to realize the vast majority of our potential.
Crucially, humanity might not naturally converge on a patient process for determining the optimal use of future resources (e.g. here and here).
This strategic area is severely neglected; if a comprehensive reflection process is essential for high value futures, this may have significant implications for strategy and cause prioritization that the community hasn’t explicitly addressed.
“Conditional on avoiding existential catastrophes, the vast majority of future value depends on whether humanity implements a comprehensive reflection process (e.g., long reflection or coherent extrapolated volition)”
I made a more extensive argument of why I think this may be the case here.
Essentially, we cannot expect to ‘stumble’ into a great future. Without a comprehensive reflection process to navigate complex strategic uncertainties (e.g. here and here), we risk surviving but failing to realize the vast majority of our potential.
Crucially, humanity might not naturally converge on a patient process for determining the optimal use of future resources (e.g. here and here).
This strategic area is severely neglected; if a comprehensive reflection process is essential for high value futures, this may have significant implications for strategy and cause prioritization that the community hasn’t explicitly addressed.