The point I’m trying to make is that we should have a probability distribution over timelines with a chance of short, medium or long — then we need to act given this uncertainty, with a portfolio of work based around the different lengths. So even if our median is correct, I think we’re failing to do enough work aimed at the 50% of cases that are longer than the median.
The point I’m trying to make is that we should have a probability distribution over timelines with a chance of short, medium or long — then we need to act given this uncertainty, with a portfolio of work based around the different lengths. So even if our median is correct, I think we’re failing to do enough work aimed at the 50% of cases that are longer than the median.
I think that is both correct and interesting as a proposition.
But the topic as phrased seems more likely to mire it in more timelines debate. Rather than this proposition, which is a step removed from:
1. What timelines and probability distributions are correct
2. Are EAs correctly calibrated
And only then do we get to
3. EAs are “failing to do enough work aimed at longer than median cases”.
- arguably my topic “Long timelines suggest significantly different approaches than short timelines” is between 2 & 3