No aging enables autocrats to stay in power indefinitely, as it is often the uncertainty of their death that leads to the failure of their regimes. Given that billions worldwide currently live under autocratic or authoritarian governments, this is a very real concern.
Among the largest nations that are most relevant to the world (or have a disproportionate ability to shape what happens to the world relative to their ability to be shaped by other countries), it only applies for China and Russia, and it’s unclear whether Xi or Putin strongly care about immortality (and even if it did, it would be unlikely to arrive quickly enough to save them). Given that the next 100 years might be the most important years ever in human history, this makes this supposition more bounded on what might happen in the next 100 years, and there aren’t that many dictators in that position. It’s also unlikely that China would become less autocratic/flexible even after Xi dies (the CCP will just have other ways to maintain its power—probably in a way similar to how North Korea barely changed after Kim Jung Il died. When an autocrat’s closest associates also die off over time, it can cause a weakening of the strong beliefs held by some of the previous generation, which might facilitate regime change.
I think this concern has a potential for strong negative downside on the tails, but it’s unclear if it is a strong negative downside in the median case (given that we know who the most relevant dictators are here, and there aren’t many). Given the increasing power disparity between China and the West, what happens in China then becomes uniquely important, so this concern may be more targeted around whether or not China’s ability to change is affected by whether or not the death of Xi’s successor (and everyone in Xi’s generation of the CCP) would significantly increase the chances of China transitioning away from the strongest downsides of autocracy or authoritarian governments (I believe China transitioning away from authoritarianism is unlikely no matter what, though the death of its autocrats over the next 100 yearsmight increase China’s chances of ultimately transitioning away from the most negative effects of authoritarian governments, such as censorship of thoughtcrimes). Conditioning everything into the far future could also time-localize (or impose an upper bound on) much of the “suffering” that comes from the mission of “transforming the identities of unreceptive people into Han Chinese” [eg people in Hong Kong now will most likely suffer in the present, but future people born in Hong Kong probably won’t “suffer” as much from not having something tangible “taken away” from them], though what China is doing now (wrt stifling dialogue) is certainly not making China’s future more robust.
It’s also possible that AI may ultimately improve social dialogue to the point that it may help the CCP get what it wants without feeling threatened if it relaxes some of its more draconian measures such as censorship. I’m not sure if prolonging the lives of China’s authoritarians is guaranteed to be a strong negatives—it certainly has issues such as being insufficiently insensitive over what it’s doing to Xinjiang/Tibet/Hong Kong (and possibly eventually Taiwan), but these issues are mostly in the now and will be unaffected by life extension in the future. What China is doing to increase its influence/power elsewhere will be done irrespective of who is in power, and it probably doesn’t have a strong desire to “take over” other countries in the way that Hitler or Stalin did (ultimately, it is more constrained by what other countries can do to it more than it is constrained by the potential deaths of its dictators, unless it had an unusually powerful/effective/ruthless dictator, which I’m not sure if has).
It may ultimately come down to anti-aging technology ultimately come at just the right time to save us from the worst of authoritarianism (given that we no longer have Stalin or Mao).
2021 edit: Though who knows, democracies can easily turn into authoritarian regimes, and all it takes is a single terrorist or bioterrorist attack that forces universal surveillance...
Among the largest nations that are most relevant to the world (or have a disproportionate ability to shape what happens to the world relative to their ability to be shaped by other countries), it only applies for China and Russia, and it’s unclear whether Xi or Putin strongly care about immortality (and even if it did, it would be unlikely to arrive quickly enough to save them). Given that the next 100 years might be the most important years ever in human history, this makes this supposition more bounded on what might happen in the next 100 years, and there aren’t that many dictators in that position. It’s also unlikely that China would become less autocratic/flexible even after Xi dies (the CCP will just have other ways to maintain its power—probably in a way similar to how North Korea barely changed after Kim Jung Il died. When an autocrat’s closest associates also die off over time, it can cause a weakening of the strong beliefs held by some of the previous generation, which might facilitate regime change.
I think this concern has a potential for strong negative downside on the tails, but it’s unclear if it is a strong negative downside in the median case (given that we know who the most relevant dictators are here, and there aren’t many). Given the increasing power disparity between China and the West, what happens in China then becomes uniquely important, so this concern may be more targeted around whether or not China’s ability to change is affected by whether or not the death of Xi’s successor (and everyone in Xi’s generation of the CCP) would significantly increase the chances of China transitioning away from the strongest downsides of autocracy or authoritarian governments (I believe China transitioning away from authoritarianism is unlikely no matter what, though the death of its autocrats over the next 100 yearsmight increase China’s chances of ultimately transitioning away from the most negative effects of authoritarian governments, such as censorship of thoughtcrimes). Conditioning everything into the far future could also time-localize (or impose an upper bound on) much of the “suffering” that comes from the mission of “transforming the identities of unreceptive people into Han Chinese” [eg people in Hong Kong now will most likely suffer in the present, but future people born in Hong Kong probably won’t “suffer” as much from not having something tangible “taken away” from them], though what China is doing now (wrt stifling dialogue) is certainly not making China’s future more robust.
It’s also possible that AI may ultimately improve social dialogue to the point that it may help the CCP get what it wants without feeling threatened if it relaxes some of its more draconian measures such as censorship. I’m not sure if prolonging the lives of China’s authoritarians is guaranteed to be a strong negatives—it certainly has issues such as being insufficiently insensitive over what it’s doing to Xinjiang/Tibet/Hong Kong (and possibly eventually Taiwan), but these issues are mostly in the now and will be unaffected by life extension in the future. What China is doing to increase its influence/power elsewhere will be done irrespective of who is in power, and it probably doesn’t have a strong desire to “take over” other countries in the way that Hitler or Stalin did (ultimately, it is more constrained by what other countries can do to it more than it is constrained by the potential deaths of its dictators, unless it had an unusually powerful/effective/ruthless dictator, which I’m not sure if has).
It may ultimately come down to anti-aging technology ultimately come at just the right time to save us from the worst of authoritarianism (given that we no longer have Stalin or Mao).
2021 edit: Though who knows, democracies can easily turn into authoritarian regimes, and all it takes is a single terrorist or bioterrorist attack that forces universal surveillance...