Based on, for example, this post , would it be reasonable to say that most of the expected total impact of donating to / working on global health and development is linked to the respective long-term effects? If so, as suggested here (see “Response five: “Go longtermist”″), it seems more reasonable to focus on long-termism.
I believe:
The prior for the short-term (1st order) expected impact of (e.g.) GiveWell top charities has low variance.
The estimate for the total expected impact of GiveWell top charities has high variance.
The higher the variance of the estimate, the smaller the update to the prior.
However, I do not think one should conclude from the above that the posterior for the total expected impact of GiveWell top charities is similar to the prior for the short-term expected impact of GiveWell top charities. If I am not mistaken, this update would only be valid if the low-variance prior concerned the total expected impact of GiveWell top charities, but it respects the short-term expected impact.
Based on, for example, this post , would it be reasonable to say that most of the expected total impact of donating to / working on global health and development is linked to the respective long-term effects? If so, as suggested here (see “Response five: “Go longtermist”″), it seems more reasonable to focus on long-termism.
I believe:
The prior for the short-term (1st order) expected impact of (e.g.) GiveWell top charities has low variance.
The estimate for the total expected impact of GiveWell top charities has high variance.
The higher the variance of the estimate, the smaller the update to the prior.
However, I do not think one should conclude from the above that the posterior for the total expected impact of GiveWell top charities is similar to the prior for the short-term expected impact of GiveWell top charities. If I am not mistaken, this update would only be valid if the low-variance prior concerned the total expected impact of GiveWell top charities, but it respects the short-term expected impact.