Maybe the best “poverty alleviation” charities are also the best “existential risk” charities. That is, maybe they are more effective at reducing existential risk than than are charities typically thought of as (the best) existential risk charities. How likely is this to be true? Less than 1%?
More than 1%. For example, investing in GiveWell (and to a lesser extent, donating to its top charities to increase its money moved and influence) to expedite its development has been a fantastic buy for global poverty historically, and it looks like it will also turn out to have great effects in reducing global catastrophic risks and factory farming.
It could end up best if you think improving general human empowerment or doing “common sense good” (or something like that) is the best way to reduce existential risk, though personally it seems unclear because many existential risks are man-made, and there seems to be more specific things we can do about them.
GiveWell also selects charities on the basis of room for more funding, team quality and transparency—things you’d want in any charity no matter your outcome metric—and that might raise the probability above 1%.
There might be a strong argument made about the existential risk coming from people in poverty contributing to social instability, and the resulting potential for various forms of terrorism, sabotage, and other Black Swan scenarios.
Or looking at it the other way around-perhaps the most effective way of reducing global catastrophic risk also is the most effective way of helping the people in poverty in the present generation, as I argue here.
Based on, for example, this post , would it be reasonable to say that most of the expected total impact of donating to / working on global health and development is linked to the respective long-term effects? If so, as suggested here (see “Response five: “Go longtermist”″), it seems more reasonable to focus on long-termism.
I believe:
The prior for the short-term (1st order) expected impact of (e.g.) GiveWell top charities has low variance.
The estimate for the total expected impact of GiveWell top charities has high variance.
The higher the variance of the estimate, the smaller the update to the prior.
However, I do not think one should conclude from the above that the posterior for the total expected impact of GiveWell top charities is similar to the prior for the short-term expected impact of GiveWell top charities. If I am not mistaken, this update would only be valid if the low-variance prior concerned the total expected impact of GiveWell top charities, but it respects the short-term expected impact.
More than 1%. For example, investing in GiveWell (and to a lesser extent, donating to its top charities to increase its money moved and influence) to expedite its development has been a fantastic buy for global poverty historically, and it looks like it will also turn out to have great effects in reducing global catastrophic risks and factory farming.
It could end up best if you think improving general human empowerment or doing “common sense good” (or something like that) is the best way to reduce existential risk, though personally it seems unclear because many existential risks are man-made, and there seems to be more specific things we can do about them.
GiveWell also selects charities on the basis of room for more funding, team quality and transparency—things you’d want in any charity no matter your outcome metric—and that might raise the probability above 1%.
Indeed. Valuation of outcomes is one of several multiplicative factors.
There might be a strong argument made about the existential risk coming from people in poverty contributing to social instability, and the resulting potential for various forms of terrorism, sabotage, and other Black Swan scenarios.
Or looking at it the other way around-perhaps the most effective way of reducing global catastrophic risk also is the most effective way of helping the people in poverty in the present generation, as I argue here.
Based on, for example, this post , would it be reasonable to say that most of the expected total impact of donating to / working on global health and development is linked to the respective long-term effects? If so, as suggested here (see “Response five: “Go longtermist”″), it seems more reasonable to focus on long-termism.
I believe:
The prior for the short-term (1st order) expected impact of (e.g.) GiveWell top charities has low variance.
The estimate for the total expected impact of GiveWell top charities has high variance.
The higher the variance of the estimate, the smaller the update to the prior.
However, I do not think one should conclude from the above that the posterior for the total expected impact of GiveWell top charities is similar to the prior for the short-term expected impact of GiveWell top charities. If I am not mistaken, this update would only be valid if the low-variance prior concerned the total expected impact of GiveWell top charities, but it respects the short-term expected impact.