And even a lowish probability of a long chain means the bulk of the damages are on other people rather than your self
Sure, but how large? At an empirical IFR of 0.5%, and expected chain size of 5 (which I think is a bit of an overestimate for most of my friends in Berkeley), you get to 2% fatality rate in expectation (assuming personal risk negligible).
If you assume local IFRs of your child nodes are smaller than global IFR, you can easily cut this again by 2-5x.
This is all empirical questions, before double-counting concerns in moral aggregation.
Sure, but how large? At an empirical IFR of 0.5%, and expected chain size of 5 (which I think is a bit of an overestimate for most of my friends in Berkeley), you get to 2% fatality rate in expectation (assuming personal risk negligible).
If you assume local IFRs of your child nodes are smaller than global IFR, you can easily cut this again by 2-5x.
This is all empirical questions, before double-counting concerns in moral aggregation.