It would also be more informative to assess risks of death from COVID-19. ‘Micromorts’ normally stand for one-in-a-million chance of death because the word is combined from micro and mortality. If 1000 μCoV were a thousand-in-a-million chance of death, then engaging in activities with such a risk would be quite reckless indeed. That would be about similar to climbing quite high mountains and doing a couple of base-jumps.
I have calculated COVID-19 risks for myself in the context of Estonia where I am currently. My numbers right now are about: risk of getting COVID-19: 1^-4 and risk of dying of COVID-19: 4^-6 (about 4 micromorts). These are probably overestimates as I’m young, healthy, and very cautious and I’m using nasal swab data rather than antibody data, which indicate about 10 times larger infection rate than the nasal swab data (meaning 10 times smaller death rate in Estonia). These numbers are of course smaller in Estonia than in the Bay Area.
Another interesting topic here is what counts as too risky? I think that my risk threshold is about traveling 10 km by motorbike, which is about 1 micromort. I would engage in such activities once in a while, but in general 1 micromort seems too large in the context of activities that are easily substitutable. Can’t ride a motorbike for entertainment? Easy, just play some less risky sport and get as much pleasure.
I believe it is “borderline reckless” because 1000 μCoV per event = 0.1% Cov per event and their default risk tolerance is 1% per year [another available option is 0.1% per year]. So you can do such events about one once per month [or per year] before exhausting your tolerance.
Another question is whether 1% or .1% risk tolerance is reasonable. It might be for some age/health cohorts; or for someone really worried/confused about long-term effects [s.a. chronic fatigue from SARS or some unknown-unknowns].
On the other hand, while being cautious, one shouldn’t neglect gradual negative effects on mental health and so on.
It would also be more informative to assess risks of death from COVID-19. ‘Micromorts’ normally stand for one-in-a-million chance of death because the word is combined from micro and mortality. If 1000 μCoV were a thousand-in-a-million chance of death, then engaging in activities with such a risk would be quite reckless indeed. That would be about similar to climbing quite high mountains and doing a couple of base-jumps.
I have calculated COVID-19 risks for myself in the context of Estonia where I am currently. My numbers right now are about: risk of getting COVID-19: 1^-4 and risk of dying of COVID-19: 4^-6 (about 4 micromorts). These are probably overestimates as I’m young, healthy, and very cautious and I’m using nasal swab data rather than antibody data, which indicate about 10 times larger infection rate than the nasal swab data (meaning 10 times smaller death rate in Estonia). These numbers are of course smaller in Estonia than in the Bay Area.
Another interesting topic here is what counts as too risky? I think that my risk threshold is about traveling 10 km by motorbike, which is about 1 micromort. I would engage in such activities once in a while, but in general 1 micromort seems too large in the context of activities that are easily substitutable. Can’t ride a motorbike for entertainment? Easy, just play some less risky sport and get as much pleasure.
I believe it is “borderline reckless” because 1000 μCoV per event = 0.1% Cov per event and their default risk tolerance is 1% per year [another available option is 0.1% per year]. So you can do such events about one once per month [or per year] before exhausting your tolerance.
Another question is whether 1% or .1% risk tolerance is reasonable. It might be for some age/health cohorts; or for someone really worried/confused about long-term effects [s.a. chronic fatigue from SARS or some unknown-unknowns].
On the other hand, while being cautious, one shouldn’t neglect gradual negative effects on mental health and so on.