I will make it reasonably clear in the proper reports that this is An EA Project rather than The EA Position.
Thank you. If you fully clarify that this is a project of someone who identifies as an effective altruist, and your position may or may not be shared by all ‘effective altruists’, than my objections are pretty much moot. I really want to reiterate how much I think EA would gain by staying away from most political issues.
Almost by definition, the issues that are distanced from EA will tend to get less weight. So, it’s not super important to include them at all, but at the same time they will not change many of the outcomes.
What is the benefit of including them? Does the benefit outweigh the cost of potentially unnecessarily shuffling some candidates? ATM, I would suggest ranking those politicians whould would get shuffled equally, and let the reader decide for themselves (or flip a coin).
Then they can be marketed differently and people can choose which one to look at.
This seems like a very bad idea. This is similar to newspapers proporting to be the source of “factual information” selling different versions of articles based on readers’ points of view. There is one objective reality and our goal should be to get our understanding as close to it as possible. Again, I would suggest to instead set a goal of making a model which is
1.) Robust to new evidence
2.) Robust to different points of view
This will require some tradeoffs (or maybe is not possible at all), but only then can you get rid of the cognitive dissonance in the second paragraph of your report and confidently say “If you use the model correctly, and one politician scores better than another, then he/she is better full stop”.
If you fully clarify that this is a project of someone who identifies as an effective altruist, and your position may or may not be shared by all ‘effective altruists’, than my objections are pretty much moot.
I don’t see how objections about methodology would be mooted merely because the audience knows that the methodology is disputed.
What is the benefit of including them?
That they are predictors of how good or bad a political term will be.
Does the benefit outweigh the cost of potentially unnecessarily shuffling some candidates?
If they are weighted appropriately, they will only shuffle them when it is good to do so.
There is one objective reality and our goal should be to get our understanding as close to it as possible.
Then why do you want me to flip coins or leave things to the reader’s judgement...?
1.) Robust to new evidence
I recently removed that statement from the document because I decided it’s an inaccurate characterization.
2.) Robust to different points of view
This also contradicts the wish for a model that is objective. “Robust to different points of view” really means making no assumptions on controversial topics, and incomplete.
Generally speaking, I don’t see justification for your point of view (that issues are generally not predictive of the value of a term… this contradicts how nearly everyone thinks about politics), nor do you seem to have a clear conception of an alternative methodology. You want me to include EA issues, yet at the same time you do not want issues in general to have any weight. Can you propose a complete framework?
I don’t see how objections about methodology would be mooted merely because the audience knows that the methodology is disputed.
That’s not what I’m saying at all. How is a suggestion to include a disclaimer an objection about methodology? It is not that unclear. Am I being read?
If they are weighted appropriately, they will only shuffle them when it is good to do so.
What is the methodology for determining the weights?
Then why do you want me to flip coins or leave things to the reader’s judgement...?
Because leaving decision to chance in face of uncertainty may sometimes be a good strategy? And I suggest leaving things to the reader’s judgement when there is still considerable uncertainty / insufficient evidence for taking any position? Am I being considered at all, or have you just decided to take a hostile position for some reason...?
I recently removed that statement from the document because I decided it’s an inaccurate characterization.
I agree.
This also contradicts the wish for a model that is objective.
Again, nowhere have I expressed that wish.
… really means making no assumptions on controversial topics, and incomplete.
I agree.
… issues are generally not predictive of the value of a term...
That is a vague statement which I didn’t make.
.. yet at the same time you do not want issues in general to have any weight...
Again, never said that. That probably refers to my first post where I was talking about general EA position, which is moot once you include a disclaimer.
However, I apologize for not taking the time to do at least some research before making a comment. I am not versed in political science at all. Your model (or its future version) may be very well justifiable. I have some experience in game theory which maybe made me biased to see the problem more complicated than it is at first, and, even more importantly, I also have a truckload of other biases I should try to become more aware of. For example, I thought that if you take a random politician pre-election promise on a random topic, that it is likely going to be left unadressed or broken given they are elected, due to lack of accountability and attempt to appeal (I know some examples of which that happened in the past, which of course doesn’t at all mean it’s likely). A quick research showed this was probably wrong, so again, I apologize.
I will do some research and thinking when I have time and come back when I have some (hopefully) more informed ideas, and definitely do that in the future. I don’t retract the objections which don’t rely on unpredictability of decisions, however.
Thank you. If you fully clarify that this is a project of someone who identifies as an effective altruist, and your position may or may not be shared by all ‘effective altruists’, than my objections are pretty much moot. I really want to reiterate how much I think EA would gain by staying away from most political issues.
What is the benefit of including them? Does the benefit outweigh the cost of potentially unnecessarily shuffling some candidates? ATM, I would suggest ranking those politicians whould would get shuffled equally, and let the reader decide for themselves (or flip a coin).
This seems like a very bad idea. This is similar to newspapers proporting to be the source of “factual information” selling different versions of articles based on readers’ points of view. There is one objective reality and our goal should be to get our understanding as close to it as possible. Again, I would suggest to instead set a goal of making a model which is
1.) Robust to new evidence
2.) Robust to different points of view
This will require some tradeoffs (or maybe is not possible at all), but only then can you get rid of the cognitive dissonance in the second paragraph of your report and confidently say “If you use the model correctly, and one politician scores better than another, then he/she is better full stop”.
I don’t see how objections about methodology would be mooted merely because the audience knows that the methodology is disputed.
That they are predictors of how good or bad a political term will be.
If they are weighted appropriately, they will only shuffle them when it is good to do so.
Then why do you want me to flip coins or leave things to the reader’s judgement...?
I recently removed that statement from the document because I decided it’s an inaccurate characterization.
This also contradicts the wish for a model that is objective. “Robust to different points of view” really means making no assumptions on controversial topics, and incomplete.
Generally speaking, I don’t see justification for your point of view (that issues are generally not predictive of the value of a term… this contradicts how nearly everyone thinks about politics), nor do you seem to have a clear conception of an alternative methodology. You want me to include EA issues, yet at the same time you do not want issues in general to have any weight. Can you propose a complete framework?
That’s not what I’m saying at all. How is a suggestion to include a disclaimer an objection about methodology? It is not that unclear. Am I being read?
What is the methodology for determining the weights?
Because leaving decision to chance in face of uncertainty may sometimes be a good strategy? And I suggest leaving things to the reader’s judgement when there is still considerable uncertainty / insufficient evidence for taking any position? Am I being considered at all, or have you just decided to take a hostile position for some reason...?
I agree.
Again, nowhere have I expressed that wish.
I agree.
That is a vague statement which I didn’t make.
Again, never said that. That probably refers to my first post where I was talking about general EA position, which is moot once you include a disclaimer.
However, I apologize for not taking the time to do at least some research before making a comment. I am not versed in political science at all. Your model (or its future version) may be very well justifiable. I have some experience in game theory which maybe made me biased to see the problem more complicated than it is at first, and, even more importantly, I also have a truckload of other biases I should try to become more aware of. For example, I thought that if you take a random politician pre-election promise on a random topic, that it is likely going to be left unadressed or broken given they are elected, due to lack of accountability and attempt to appeal (I know some examples of which that happened in the past, which of course doesn’t at all mean it’s likely). A quick research showed this was probably wrong, so again, I apologize.
I will do some research and thinking when I have time and come back when I have some (hopefully) more informed ideas, and definitely do that in the future. I don’t retract the objections which don’t rely on unpredictability of decisions, however.