I imagine a bit of investigation/survey work would be really good here. It’s a clear empirical question, and I’d hope that if it is true, data would be very convincing to the relevant decision-makers.
Personally I’d hope and expect that it’s true (I’m not very excited about some of these people either, and it would be great to have the conference have better attendees), but expect that the Manifold team isn’t yet convinced.
I think that I’m a bit nervous that claims like “lots of great people who are interested and talented at forecasting don’t go” might actually be, or be treated as, vague points in favor of a side, rather than a real empirical belief.
I’d suspect people on the other side would assume that this is is meant more as a value statement.
But given the specific people in this conversation, I think it’s possible and perhaps preferable for it to be more of an empirical statement—and if that is true, that would be great because it could be studied and the corresponding point would stand.
Here’s one data point; I was consistently in the top 25 on metaculus for a couple years. I would never attend a conference where a “scientific racist” gave a talk.
I imagine a bit of investigation/survey work would be really good here. It’s a clear empirical question, and I’d hope that if it is true, data would be very convincing to the relevant decision-makers.
Personally I’d hope and expect that it’s true (I’m not very excited about some of these people either, and it would be great to have the conference have better attendees), but expect that the Manifold team isn’t yet convinced.
I think that I’m a bit nervous that claims like “lots of great people who are interested and talented at forecasting don’t go” might actually be, or be treated as, vague points in favor of a side, rather than a real empirical belief.
I’d suspect people on the other side would assume that this is is meant more as a value statement.
But given the specific people in this conversation, I think it’s possible and perhaps preferable for it to be more of an empirical statement—and if that is true, that would be great because it could be studied and the corresponding point would stand.
Here’s one data point; I was consistently in the top 25 on metaculus for a couple years. I would never attend a conference where a “scientific racist” gave a talk.