I don’t disagree with the point you’re making at all.
My problem with the current situation is that there are probably not a broad range of domain experts being involved and receiving weight proportionate to their expertise. Specifically, I see two problems:
1. It feels like the armed forces and the weapons manufacturers, who are two of, but not the only domains in which expertise is relevant, have an overwhelming voice in these decisions. It’s not clear to me that other voices are sufficiently heard, for example EA groups doing research looking at how to minimise the risk of nuclear war.
2. In addition to the limited range of expertise involved, there is a high risk of bias. Investing more money in nuclear weapons has different value for different people. Depending on your opinions, you may conclude that it is good or bad for a typical American citizen. However, there is a very small group of people for whom the expected value is extremely positive—arms manufacturers and the armed forces. So when the decision is being taken by people who stand to benefit from one choice and to be hurt by the other choice, that’s not ideal.
Thanks for the comment!
I don’t disagree with the point you’re making at all.
My problem with the current situation is that there are probably not a broad range of domain experts being involved and receiving weight proportionate to their expertise. Specifically, I see two problems:
1. It feels like the armed forces and the weapons manufacturers, who are two of, but not the only domains in which expertise is relevant, have an overwhelming voice in these decisions. It’s not clear to me that other voices are sufficiently heard, for example EA groups doing research looking at how to minimise the risk of nuclear war.
2. In addition to the limited range of expertise involved, there is a high risk of bias. Investing more money in nuclear weapons has different value for different people. Depending on your opinions, you may conclude that it is good or bad for a typical American citizen. However, there is a very small group of people for whom the expected value is extremely positive—arms manufacturers and the armed forces. So when the decision is being taken by people who stand to benefit from one choice and to be hurt by the other choice, that’s not ideal.