Might not count as winning in the sense of being extremely rich and successful by conventional standards, but I think people outside the forecasting space underestimates the degree to which superforecasters are disproportionately likely to be rationalist and rationalist adjacent.
Registering that I think the poll here is likely (~60%?) to end up being >25% for P(interacts with rationality | is a superforecaster), which is way above base rates.
Might not count as winning in the sense of being extremely rich and successful by conventional standards, but I think people outside the forecasting space underestimates the degree to which superforecasters are disproportionately likely to be rationalist and rationalist adjacent.
Registering that I think the poll here is likely (~60%?) to end up being >25% for P(interacts with rationality | is a superforecaster), which is way above base rates.
Update: as an empirical matter, I most likely did not predict the poll correctly.
Here’s the poll results so far.