I’ll second this. In double cruxing EV calcs with others it is clear that they are often quite parameter sensitive and that awareness of such parameter sensitivity is rare/does not come for free. Just the opposite, trying to do sensitivity analysis on what are already fuzzy qualitative->quantitative heuristics is quite stressful/frustrating. Results from sufficiently complex EV calcs usually fall prey to ontology failures, ie key assumptions turned out wrong 25% of the time in studies on analyst performance in the intelligence community, and most scenarios have more than 4 key assumptions.
I’ll second this. In double cruxing EV calcs with others it is clear that they are often quite parameter sensitive and that awareness of such parameter sensitivity is rare/does not come for free. Just the opposite, trying to do sensitivity analysis on what are already fuzzy qualitative->quantitative heuristics is quite stressful/frustrating. Results from sufficiently complex EV calcs usually fall prey to ontology failures, ie key assumptions turned out wrong 25% of the time in studies on analyst performance in the intelligence community, and most scenarios have more than 4 key assumptions.
Good points, but this seems to point to a weakness in the way we do modeling, not a weakness in expected value.