Re: probabilities, I’ve been working on a search engine for probabilities as a small side project, and some of the ones I could find are:
Will the USA’s Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?: 70%
Second US civil war before July 2021?: 1% (Metaculus doesn’t allow lower probabilities)
Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?: 3%
SCOTUS impeachment before 2030: 7%
Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?: 75%
Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?: 75%
Date USA Metaculites face emigration crisis: 15% before Dec 25, 2030
Will US life expectancy at birth for both sexes fall below 75 years before 2040? : 13%
Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?: 5%
Coup-cast: Probability of a coup in the US in 2021: 0.08%. (at 0.08% per year, the probability in 50 years would be ~4%.)
Most of these are from Metaculus, which isn’t surprising given the sheer volume of questions it has and its willingness to include long term and somewhat weird questions.
A >0.5% per 50 years sounds like a reasonable probability to me.
I imagine my probabilities would depend on the specific definition of “collapse”. If something like the fall of the Soviet Union would also count as a “collapse” then I could imagine going up to a couple of percentage points.
having a question on Metaculus about this seems like a cheap win.
Added the cause candidate tag to this.
Very helpful. Thanks!