I was surprised you did not mention nuclear war as a cause of the decline of the US. If you take Luisa Rodriguez’s average estimate of US-Russia nuclear war, 0.38% per year, that’s about 20% chance in 50 years. And that does not take into account possible US-China nuclear war. I think even if nuclear winter did not happen, just the war would cause a significant decline in the US. So would that meet your definition?
Thanks David! I guess I was implicitly thinking of scenarios where the decline of the US was not caused by a GCR, since such cases would already qualify for EA prioritization. But agree that decline of the US due to a GCR would meet my stated definition of Collapse.