Thanks for raising this! You’re right — Robock 2007 does find that even a relatively small nuclear exchange would have devastating climate effects that would probably cause a famine. But my understanding (from both Robock’s paper and this report on the impact of a regional nuclear exchange on the global food supply) is that a regional nuclear war, while horrible, would not cause a severe enough nuclear winter to risk human extinction.
I’ll clarify in the post that I’m most worried about nuclear exchange scenarios that would lead to a nuclear winter severe enough as to pose an extinction risk.
Are you only worried about extinction, or existential risk more broadly? I talk about a number of ways that a catastrophe the size of a regional nuclear war could lead to long-term impact, including instability leading to full-scale nuclear war.
Thanks for raising this! You’re right — Robock 2007 does find that even a relatively small nuclear exchange would have devastating climate effects that would probably cause a famine. But my understanding (from both Robock’s paper and this report on the impact of a regional nuclear exchange on the global food supply) is that a regional nuclear war, while horrible, would not cause a severe enough nuclear winter to risk human extinction.
I’ll clarify in the post that I’m most worried about nuclear exchange scenarios that would lead to a nuclear winter severe enough as to pose an extinction risk.
Are you only worried about extinction, or existential risk more broadly? I talk about a number of ways that a catastrophe the size of a regional nuclear war could lead to long-term impact, including instability leading to full-scale nuclear war.