To be honest, even if we grant the assumption that AI alignment is achieved and it matters who achieves AGI/ASI, I’d be much, much less confident in America racing, and think that it’s weakly negative to race.
One big reason for this is that the pressures AGI introduces are closer to cross-cutting pressures than pressures that are dependent on nations, like the intelligence curse sort of scenario where elites have incentives to invest in their automated economy, and leave the large non-elite population to starve/be repressed:
To be honest, even if we grant the assumption that AI alignment is achieved and it matters who achieves AGI/ASI, I’d be much, much less confident in America racing, and think that it’s weakly negative to race.
One big reason for this is that the pressures AGI introduces are closer to cross-cutting pressures than pressures that are dependent on nations, like the intelligence curse sort of scenario where elites have incentives to invest in their automated economy, and leave the large non-elite population to starve/be repressed:
https://lukedrago.substack.com/p/the-intelligence-curse