I basically grant 2, sort of agree with 1, and drastically disagree with three (that timelines will be long.)
Which makes me a bit weird, since while I do have real confidence in the basic story that governments are likely to influence AI a lot, I do have my doubts that governments will try to regulate AI seriously, especially if timelines are short enough.
This is mostly correct as a summary of my position, but for point 6, I want to point out while this is technically true, I do fear economic incentives are against this path.
Agree with the rest of the summary though.