The tension between overconfidence and rigorous thinking is overrated:
Swisher: Do you take criticism to heart correctly?
Elon: Yes.
Swisher: Give me an example of something if you could.
Elon: How do you think rockets get to orbit?
Swisher: That’s a fair point.
Elon: Not easily. Physics is very demanding. If you get it wrong, the rocket will blow up. Cars are very demanding. If you get it wrong, a car won’t work. Truth in engineering and science is extremely important.
The tension between overconfidence and rigorous thinking is overrated:
Source and previous discussion.