It might be true that the right expected utility calculation would endorse being overconfident, but “Bayesian mindset” isn’t about behaving like a theoretically ideal utility maximizer—it’s about actually writing down probabilities and values and taking action based on those. I think trying to actually make decisions this way is a very awkward fit with an overconfident attitude: even if the equation you write down says you’ll do best by feeling overconfident, that might be tough in practice.
The tension between overconfidence and rigorous thinking is overrated:
Swisher: Do you take criticism to heart correctly?
Elon: Yes.
Swisher: Give me an example of something if you could.
Elon: How do you think rockets get to orbit?
Swisher: That’s a fair point.
Elon: Not easily. Physics is very demanding. If you get it wrong, the rocket will blow up. Cars are very demanding. If you get it wrong, a car won’t work. Truth in engineering and science is extremely important.
It might be true that the right expected utility calculation would endorse being overconfident, but “Bayesian mindset” isn’t about behaving like a theoretically ideal utility maximizer—it’s about actually writing down probabilities and values and taking action based on those. I think trying to actually make decisions this way is a very awkward fit with an overconfident attitude: even if the equation you write down says you’ll do best by feeling overconfident, that might be tough in practice.
The tension between overconfidence and rigorous thinking is overrated:
Source and previous discussion.