Pascal’s mugging is only there to uncover ifthere might be a potential problem with using EV maximisation when probabilities get very small. It’s a thought experiment in decision theory. For that reason I actually think my altered thought experiment is useful, as I think you were introducing complications that distract from this central message of the thought experiment. Pascal’s mugging doesn’t in itself say anything about the relevance of these issues to real life. It may be all a moot point at the end of the day.
It sounds to me as if you don’t see any issues with EV maximisation when probabilities get very small. So in my altered thought experiment you would indeed give away your wallet to some random dude claiming to be a wizard, thereby giving up all those awesome things from the store. It’s worth at least noting that many people wouldn’t do the same, and who is right or wrong is where the interesting conundrum lies.
It’s worth at least noting that many people wouldn’t do the same
I don’t think many people are capable of actually internalizing all of the relevant assumptions that in real life would be totally unreasonable, nor do most people have a really good sense of why they have certain intuitions in the first place. So, it’s not particularly surprising/interesting that people would have very different views on this question.
Pascal’s mugging is only there to uncover if there might be a potential problem with using EV maximisation when probabilities get very small. It’s a thought experiment in decision theory. For that reason I actually think my altered thought experiment is useful, as I think you were introducing complications that distract from this central message of the thought experiment. Pascal’s mugging doesn’t in itself say anything about the relevance of these issues to real life. It may be all a moot point at the end of the day.
It sounds to me as if you don’t see any issues with EV maximisation when probabilities get very small. So in my altered thought experiment you would indeed give away your wallet to some random dude claiming to be a wizard, thereby giving up all those awesome things from the store. It’s worth at least noting that many people wouldn’t do the same, and who is right or wrong is where the interesting conundrum lies.
I don’t think many people are capable of actually internalizing all of the relevant assumptions that in real life would be totally unreasonable, nor do most people have a really good sense of why they have certain intuitions in the first place. So, it’s not particularly surprising/interesting that people would have very different views on this question.