I think the mental health increase/decrease question (which was an external request) is not best interpreted with reference to the idea of a ‘good baseline’, since (as you are perhaps suggesting), I don’t think it’s clear what a good reference class would be for this (e.g. movements vary a lot in their composition and other potentially relevant characteristics).
I think it’s better interpreted by comparison to what your expectations would be for the absolute pattern of outcomes within the EA community (e.g. some people seem to believe that EA often has a negative impact on the mental health of those involved), and is also potentially informative in terms of group differences and, in the future, could be informative in terms of changes within the EA community over time.
Thanks Geoffrey!
I think the mental health increase/decrease question (which was an external request) is not best interpreted with reference to the idea of a ‘good baseline’, since (as you are perhaps suggesting), I don’t think it’s clear what a good reference class would be for this (e.g. movements vary a lot in their composition and other potentially relevant characteristics).
I think it’s better interpreted by comparison to what your expectations would be for the absolute pattern of outcomes within the EA community (e.g. some people seem to believe that EA often has a negative impact on the mental health of those involved), and is also potentially informative in terms of group differences and, in the future, could be informative in terms of changes within the EA community over time.