I love Wits & Wagers! You might be interested in Wits & Calibration, a variant I made during the pandemic in which players forecast the probability that each numeric range is ‘correct’ (closest to the true answer without being greater than it) rather than bet on the range that is most probable (as in the Party Edition) or highest EV given payout-ratios (regular Wits & Wagers). The spreadsheet I made auto-calculates all scores, so players need only enter their forecasts and check a box next to the correct answer.
I created the variant because I think it makes the game higher skill. For example, rather than just bet on a range that you know is the most likely to be correct, you can be rewarded for knowing whether it’s 60% likely or 80% likely to be correct, unlike in classic Wits & Wagers where everyone would bet on the range simply by knowing it’s >50% likely to be correct and get an equal reward.
I only play-tested it once (in-person with three people with one laptop plus one phone editing the spreadsheet) and the most annoying aspect of my implementation of it was having to record one’s forecasts in a spreadsheet from a phone. If everyone had a laptop or their own device it’d be easier. But I made the spreadsheet to handle games (or teams?) of up to 8 people, so I think it could work well for that.
I love Wits & Wagers! You might be interested in Wits & Calibration, a variant I made during the pandemic in which players forecast the probability that each numeric range is ‘correct’ (closest to the true answer without being greater than it) rather than bet on the range that is most probable (as in the Party Edition) or highest EV given payout-ratios (regular Wits & Wagers). The spreadsheet I made auto-calculates all scores, so players need only enter their forecasts and check a box next to the correct answer.
I created the variant because I think it makes the game higher skill. For example, rather than just bet on a range that you know is the most likely to be correct, you can be rewarded for knowing whether it’s 60% likely or 80% likely to be correct, unlike in classic Wits & Wagers where everyone would bet on the range simply by knowing it’s >50% likely to be correct and get an equal reward.
That looks really cool, thanks for sharing! Do you think it would work well in a large group setting?
It seems like a good halfway-house between the standard Wits&Wagers and a forecasting tournament.
I only play-tested it once (in-person with three people with one laptop plus one phone editing the spreadsheet) and the most annoying aspect of my implementation of it was having to record one’s forecasts in a spreadsheet from a phone. If everyone had a laptop or their own device it’d be easier. But I made the spreadsheet to handle games (or teams?) of up to 8 people, so I think it could work well for that.