It’s a fair point that my post was quite vague on some key points, and your comment provides a great invitation for me to try to clarify my claims and views a bit.
The article claims that an important trait (smarts) is overrated as a precondition to impact
I actually wouldn’t say that that’s my core claim, although I do agree with it.
My claim about overemphasis relates more to the level of actions, norms, and practical focus than it relates to predictions about how much variance in impact IQ accounts for. (This is somewhat apropos the distinction between procedural vs. declarative knowledge as well as the intention-behavior gap.)
That is, it’s possible that we’re mostly right about how much variance different factors predict (or at least that we would be right on reflection, cf. your note in the other comment about how our immediate intuitions might be wrong), yet that we’re nonetheless off in terms of how much we focus on developing and selecting for those respective factors in practice (including, and perhaps especially, when it comes to less tangible “focus promoters” such as norms, informal prestige conferral, and daydreams).
So I think IQ is probably somewhat descriptively overrated (more on this below), but I think the degree to which it is overemphasized at the level of norms, actions, and salient decision criteria is considerably stronger. One line of evidence I have for this is how often I see references to smarts, including in internal discussions related to career and hiring decisions, compared to other important traits.
How much do I think these other things are underemphasized, in quantitative terms? It is difficult for me to put a precise number on it, but my sense is that it would be good if most of the other traits and virtues I listed were to receive at least twice as much attention as they currently do, both in terms of how much time people devote to cultivating them in personal development efforts as well as in terms of how often these virtues are emphasized in the broader discourse among aspiring effective altruists. And beyond neglectedness, a reason to focus more on these other traits relative to smarts at the level of what we seek to develop individually and incentivize collectively is that those other traits and virtues likely are more elastic and improvable than is IQ — which isn’t to say that IQ cannot also be improved.
How well does IQ predict “impact”?
Next, regarding the question of how well IQ predicts impact, I think this depends critically on how we define “impact”. This may feel like a trivial point, but please bear with me as I try to explain where I’m coming from. :)
I like that you specified the following in your other comment, namely that you estimated impact roughly in terms of “what prediction-evaluation setups would say about someone’s past impact five years from now”. That’s a clearly specified point in time.
However, I think it’s likely that impact assessments will diverge substantially depending on the timeframe (cf. our vast uncertainty over time and the “Three Mile Island effect”). This also relates to the virtues I listed in the post.
For example, I think it’s possible (perhaps ~10 percent likely) that the community ends up going in a highly suboptimal direction due to focusing too exclusively on metrics such as “number of publications” or “useful theoretical insights provided” over, say, a five-year period, while neglecting less tangible factors such as interpersonal kindness and social health, which may gradually — in less noticeable ways that might only become apparent over longer timespans — lead to corrosion, burnout, or conflicts. (And the lack of emphasis on such less tangible factors might also be driving people away in the short term, in ways that are probably easy to miss by potential evaluators of impact.)
Likewise, it could be that factors such as “attention to social aspects” explain relatively little individual variation in impact, yet that they are nonetheless critical in terms of the community’s success or failure. (Similar to how individual variation in some traits is less predictive of certain outcomes than is country-level variation. Indeed, individual-level success is not always conducive to collective success — sometimes it’s even detrimental to it; altruistic behaviors that are too babbler bird-esque might be a concrete example of that.)
Finally, I think the point about clarifying fundamental issues, specifically fundamental values, is critical. After all, an impact evaluation that is made relative to some pre-specified set of values (that is held constant) may diverge greatly from an evaluation — even a five-year evaluation — that also factors in moral reflection, and which evaluates impact based on the updated values endorsed on reflection. Such reflection and consequently updated evaluative criteria may even flip the sign of one’s impact.
I’d expect IQ to be significantly better correlated with impact based on the former kind of evaluation (where I might roughly agree with your estimates in the case of a five-year assessment*) vs. the latter evaluation (which in idealized terms one could think of as “an impact evaluation made relative to the values that the person would endorse if they had focused chiefly on value exploration their entire life” — something that more limited value reflection efforts could presumably approximate).
In the latter case, IQ might still come close to being the main predictor, but I suspect that a construct tracking “focus on fundamental values” might do even better among aspiring EAs (not least because changes in fundamental values can change the consequent evaluations a lot). That’s one of the reasons I think it’s worth focusing much more on fundamental values. :)
Like Linch, I do not see how you present any arguments for your main conclusion in the post. You argue that EA overrates IQ but present no arguments that this is the case. Your response also doesn’t present any arguments for that conclusion
As noted above, my main claim is not that “EA overrates IQ” at a purely descriptive level, but rather that other important traits deserve more focus in practice (because those other important traits seem neglected relative to smarts, and also because — at the level of what we seek to develop and incentivize — those other traits seem more elastic and improvable).
I noted in the comment above that:
one line of evidence I have for this is how often I see references to smarts, including in internal discussions related to career and hiring decisions, compared to other important traits.
Without directly quoting anyone, I can, to be more specific, say that I’ve seen relatively senior people in EA imply that certain EA organizations (including CRS, where I work) will be eager to hire applicants if they are extremely smart. That’s the kind of sentiment I feel I’ve seen quite often, and with which I strongly disagree, because being “extremely smart” is far from being sufficient, even if the person in question has altruistic values.
Thanks for your comment, Linch. :)
It’s a fair point that my post was quite vague on some key points, and your comment provides a great invitation for me to try to clarify my claims and views a bit.
I actually wouldn’t say that that’s my core claim, although I do agree with it.
My claim about overemphasis relates more to the level of actions, norms, and practical focus than it relates to predictions about how much variance in impact IQ accounts for. (This is somewhat apropos the distinction between procedural vs. declarative knowledge as well as the intention-behavior gap.)
That is, it’s possible that we’re mostly right about how much variance different factors predict (or at least that we would be right on reflection, cf. your note in the other comment about how our immediate intuitions might be wrong), yet that we’re nonetheless off in terms of how much we focus on developing and selecting for those respective factors in practice (including, and perhaps especially, when it comes to less tangible “focus promoters” such as norms, informal prestige conferral, and daydreams).
So I think IQ is probably somewhat descriptively overrated (more on this below), but I think the degree to which it is overemphasized at the level of norms, actions, and salient decision criteria is considerably stronger. One line of evidence I have for this is how often I see references to smarts, including in internal discussions related to career and hiring decisions, compared to other important traits.
How much do I think these other things are underemphasized, in quantitative terms? It is difficult for me to put a precise number on it, but my sense is that it would be good if most of the other traits and virtues I listed were to receive at least twice as much attention as they currently do, both in terms of how much time people devote to cultivating them in personal development efforts as well as in terms of how often these virtues are emphasized in the broader discourse among aspiring effective altruists. And beyond neglectedness, a reason to focus more on these other traits relative to smarts at the level of what we seek to develop individually and incentivize collectively is that those other traits and virtues likely are more elastic and improvable than is IQ — which isn’t to say that IQ cannot also be improved.
How well does IQ predict “impact”?
Next, regarding the question of how well IQ predicts impact, I think this depends critically on how we define “impact”. This may feel like a trivial point, but please bear with me as I try to explain where I’m coming from. :)
I like that you specified the following in your other comment, namely that you estimated impact roughly in terms of “what prediction-evaluation setups would say about someone’s past impact five years from now”. That’s a clearly specified point in time.
However, I think it’s likely that impact assessments will diverge substantially depending on the timeframe (cf. our vast uncertainty over time and the “Three Mile Island effect”). This also relates to the virtues I listed in the post.
For example, I think it’s possible (perhaps ~10 percent likely) that the community ends up going in a highly suboptimal direction due to focusing too exclusively on metrics such as “number of publications” or “useful theoretical insights provided” over, say, a five-year period, while neglecting less tangible factors such as interpersonal kindness and social health, which may gradually — in less noticeable ways that might only become apparent over longer timespans — lead to corrosion, burnout, or conflicts. (And the lack of emphasis on such less tangible factors might also be driving people away in the short term, in ways that are probably easy to miss by potential evaluators of impact.)
Likewise, it could be that factors such as “attention to social aspects” explain relatively little individual variation in impact, yet that they are nonetheless critical in terms of the community’s success or failure. (Similar to how individual variation in some traits is less predictive of certain outcomes than is country-level variation. Indeed, individual-level success is not always conducive to collective success — sometimes it’s even detrimental to it; altruistic behaviors that are too babbler bird-esque might be a concrete example of that.)
Finally, I think the point about clarifying fundamental issues, specifically fundamental values, is critical. After all, an impact evaluation that is made relative to some pre-specified set of values (that is held constant) may diverge greatly from an evaluation — even a five-year evaluation — that also factors in moral reflection, and which evaluates impact based on the updated values endorsed on reflection. Such reflection and consequently updated evaluative criteria may even flip the sign of one’s impact.
I’d expect IQ to be significantly better correlated with impact based on the former kind of evaluation (where I might roughly agree with your estimates in the case of a five-year assessment*) vs. the latter evaluation (which in idealized terms one could think of as “an impact evaluation made relative to the values that the person would endorse if they had focused chiefly on value exploration their entire life” — something that more limited value reflection efforts could presumably approximate).
In the latter case, IQ might still come close to being the main predictor, but I suspect that a construct tracking “focus on fundamental values” might do even better among aspiring EAs (not least because changes in fundamental values can change the consequent evaluations a lot). That’s one of the reasons I think it’s worth focusing much more on fundamental values. :)
Like Linch, I do not see how you present any arguments for your main conclusion in the post. You argue that EA overrates IQ but present no arguments that this is the case. Your response also doesn’t present any arguments for that conclusion
As noted above, my main claim is not that “EA overrates IQ” at a purely descriptive level, but rather that other important traits deserve more focus in practice (because those other important traits seem neglected relative to smarts, and also because — at the level of what we seek to develop and incentivize — those other traits seem more elastic and improvable).
I noted in the comment above that:
Without directly quoting anyone, I can, to be more specific, say that I’ve seen relatively senior people in EA imply that certain EA organizations (including CRS, where I work) will be eager to hire applicants if they are extremely smart. That’s the kind of sentiment I feel I’ve seen quite often, and with which I strongly disagree, because being “extremely smart” is far from being sufficient, even if the person in question has altruistic values.
“my main claim is not that “EA overrates IQ” at a purely descriptive level, but rather that other important traits deserve more focus in practice”
The claim that EA overrates IQ is the same as the claim that other traits deserve more attention