Nice! One other cool thing about the Big List of Cause Candidates is that people have been coming up with suggestions, and I have been updating the list as they do so.
Incidentally, the Big List of Candidates post was selected as a project by using a very rudimentary forecasting/evaluation system, similar to the ones here and here. If you want to participate in that kind of thing by suggesting, carrying out or evaluating potential projects, you can sign up here.
In particular, as a novelty, I assigned a 50% chance that it would in fact get an EA forum prize.
Note that the forecast assumed that I was competing against fewer posts, but also that there would be fewer prizes, so the errors happily cancelled out.
I think that that kind of forecast/comment:
Makes me look arrogant/not humble/unvirtuous, at least to some people. In particular, I strongly take the stance that the characters in In praise of unhistoric heroism who are ~”contented by sweeping offices instead of chasing the biggest projects they can find” are in fact making a mistake by not asking the question “but what are the most valuable things I could be doing?” (or, by using a forecasting system/setup to explore that question)
Is still really interesting because I think that forecasting funding decisions might be a workable method in order to amplifythem, which is particularly valuable given that EA might be vetting constrained. Ideally I (or other forecasters) would get to do that with EA funds or OP grants, but I thought that the forum prize could be a nice beginning.
The other posts I thought were particularly strong are:
Nice! One other cool thing about the Big List of Cause Candidates is that people have been coming up with suggestions, and I have been updating the list as they do so.
Incidentally, the Big List of Candidates post was selected as a project by using a very rudimentary forecasting/evaluation system, similar to the ones here and here. If you want to participate in that kind of thing by suggesting, carrying out or evaluating potential projects, you can sign up here.
In particular, as a novelty, I assigned a 50% chance that it would in fact get an EA forum prize.
Note that the forecast assumed that I was competing against fewer posts, but also that there would be fewer prizes, so the errors happily cancelled out.
I think that that kind of forecast/comment:
Makes me look arrogant/not humble/unvirtuous, at least to some people. In particular, I strongly take the stance that the characters in In praise of unhistoric heroism who are ~”contented by sweeping offices instead of chasing the biggest projects they can find” are in fact making a mistake by not asking the question “but what are the most valuable things I could be doing?” (or, by using a forecasting system/setup to explore that question)
Is still really interesting because I think that forecasting funding decisions might be a workable method in order to amplify them, which is particularly valuable given that EA might be vetting constrained. Ideally I (or other forecasters) would get to do that with EA funds or OP grants, but I thought that the forum prize could be a nice beginning.
The other posts I thought were particularly strong are:
2020 AI Alignment Literature Review and Charity Comparison. Note that Larks is one of the judges and last year withdrew from the prize.
What is the likelihood that civilizational collapse would directly lead to human extinction (within decades)? Also by one of the judges now.
Mitigating x-risk through modularity.
I correctly guessed My mistakes on the path to impact and “Patient vs urgent longtermism” has little direct bearing on giving now vs later.