(Not sure if the above is a view stated above is your own, or one that you attribut to Tyler—in any case just adding this as a counterargument :) for anyone reading this thread and finding this topic interesting)
This is only true if you think that political values are set at an early age and remain stable throughout life—or if you commit to unrealistic ceteris paribus assumptions about the future political landscape. Furthermore, there is also evidence that these beliefs can change, for example exposure to education is linked to liberalisation of social attitudes. So, even if social conservatives have more kids, an ‘anti-natlist and socially liberal’ EA could still inherit the future as long as it manages to persuade people to support it.
In general, this sounds like a ‘Demographics are Destiny’ idea, which might be intuitively plausible but to me comes off as quite ‘hedgehog-y’. You could always find a reason why an emerging majority hasn’t arrived in a specific election and will emerge at the next one, and then the next one, and so on. I think one can maybe make broad assessments of political future given demographic trends but, as always, prediction is hard—especially about the future.
(Not sure if the above is a view stated above is your own, or one that you attribut to Tyler—in any case just adding this as a counterargument :) for anyone reading this thread and finding this topic interesting)
This is only true if you think that political values are set at an early age and remain stable throughout life—or if you commit to unrealistic ceteris paribus assumptions about the future political landscape. Furthermore, there is also evidence that these beliefs can change, for example exposure to education is linked to liberalisation of social attitudes. So, even if social conservatives have more kids, an ‘anti-natlist and socially liberal’ EA could still inherit the future as long as it manages to persuade people to support it.
In general, this sounds like a ‘Demographics are Destiny’ idea, which might be intuitively plausible but to me comes off as quite ‘hedgehog-y’. You could always find a reason why an emerging majority hasn’t arrived in a specific election and will emerge at the next one, and then the next one, and so on. I think one can maybe make broad assessments of political future given demographic trends but, as always, prediction is hard—especially about the future.
I don’t endorse that view myself, but yeah pointing out that I think Tyler believes it.