Thanks! Yes, I think stock in AI companies is a significantly better metric than world GDP. I still think it’s not a great metric, because some of the arguments/reasons I gave above still apply. But others don’t.
I think forecasting platforms are definitely something to take seriously. I reserve the right to disagree with them sometimes though. :)
As for additional stuff we care about regarding takeoff speeds… Yeah, your comment and others are increasingly convincing me that my list wasn’t exhaustive. There are a bunch of variables we care about, and there’s lots of intellectual work to be done thinking about how they correlate and interact.
Thanks! Yes, I think stock in AI companies is a significantly better metric than world GDP. I still think it’s not a great metric, because some of the arguments/reasons I gave above still apply. But others don’t.
I think forecasting platforms are definitely something to take seriously. I reserve the right to disagree with them sometimes though. :)
As for additional stuff we care about regarding takeoff speeds… Yeah, your comment and others are increasingly convincing me that my list wasn’t exhaustive. There are a bunch of variables we care about, and there’s lots of intellectual work to be done thinking about how they correlate and interact.