Thanks for this, I haven‘t thought about the concrete time surrounding AI points of no return yet and I think this is getting increasingly important.
Some thoughts:
even if we don’t expect actual output to increase, could we maybe expect that stocks of Google and co. will rise because investors also think about potential for AI windfalls? Similarly, do you think forecasting platforms might be informative enough to be kept in mind here, too?
do you think that the level of cooperation/cooperativeness between all stakeholders should be another factor we should care about in your list regarding takeoff speeds? It might help slow everything down if all stakeholders listen to and care about the perspective of one another and can agree on being more careful
Thanks! Yes, I think stock in AI companies is a significantly better metric than world GDP. I still think it’s not a great metric, because some of the arguments/reasons I gave above still apply. But others don’t.
I think forecasting platforms are definitely something to take seriously. I reserve the right to disagree with them sometimes though. :)
As for additional stuff we care about regarding takeoff speeds… Yeah, your comment and others are increasingly convincing me that my list wasn’t exhaustive. There are a bunch of variables we care about, and there’s lots of intellectual work to be done thinking about how they correlate and interact.
Thanks for this, I haven‘t thought about the concrete time surrounding AI points of no return yet and I think this is getting increasingly important.
Some thoughts:
even if we don’t expect actual output to increase, could we maybe expect that stocks of Google and co. will rise because investors also think about potential for AI windfalls? Similarly, do you think forecasting platforms might be informative enough to be kept in mind here, too?
do you think that the level of cooperation/cooperativeness between all stakeholders should be another factor we should care about in your list regarding takeoff speeds? It might help slow everything down if all stakeholders listen to and care about the perspective of one another and can agree on being more careful
Thanks! Yes, I think stock in AI companies is a significantly better metric than world GDP. I still think it’s not a great metric, because some of the arguments/reasons I gave above still apply. But others don’t.
I think forecasting platforms are definitely something to take seriously. I reserve the right to disagree with them sometimes though. :)
As for additional stuff we care about regarding takeoff speeds… Yeah, your comment and others are increasingly convincing me that my list wasn’t exhaustive. There are a bunch of variables we care about, and there’s lots of intellectual work to be done thinking about how they correlate and interact.