If I recall correctly this paper by Tom Sittler also makes the point you paraphrased as “some reasonable base rate of x-risk means that the expected lifespan of human civilization conditional on solving a particular risk is still hundreds or thousands of years”, among others.
If I recall correctly this paper by Tom Sittler also makes the point you paraphrased as “some reasonable base rate of x-risk means that the expected lifespan of human civilization conditional on solving a particular risk is still hundreds or thousands of years”, among others.