Great comment, I appreciate this perspective and have definitely updated towards thinking the 10x gap is more explainable than I thought.
I do note that some of the examples you gave still leave me wondering if the families would rather just have the cash. Sure, perhaps it would be spent on high-priority and perhaps social signal-y things like weddings. But if they can’t currently afford to send all their kids to school or other medical treatment, I wonder if they’d sensibly rather have the cash to spend on those things than a bednet.
(Also, my understanding from surveys of cash recipients is that most do spend their money on essentials or investments.)
Oh I’m almost sure they would rather have the cash, I’m not arguing against that. And yes the evidence is clear that they mostly spend it on essentials—I would argue most of the items considered investments you see (iron roofs, motorbikes etc.) are borderline essentials anyway, or at least you could call them an investment in everyday welfare that will quickly pay dividends either in future wellbeing or financially.
Which one is more effective though depends on how much we weight preference. Give Directly (see their comment) weight the preferences of the recipients most heavily “GiveDirectly believes that the weights that should count the most are those of the specific people we’re trying to help” (Givedirectly’s “North star), while GiveWell (and myself) more heavily weight objective measures, like DALYs averted/QALYs gained and longer term financial benefits, which is where mosquito nets will dominate whatever people can spend the equivalent 5 dollars on.
For example that 5 dollars might pay for half a term’s school fees at a crappy village school (which will bring some benefit), wheras sleeping under a net for 2 years might reduce time off school and improve iron levels which helps learning and brain development, while also reducing the chance of dying or serious disability. Not too hard to see the potential 10x benefit. Apologies if this is obvious and I’m sucking eggs here.
I do wonder though how much motivated reasoning comes into give directly’s take on impact. Obviously if we weight pure preference most heavily, cash will dominate everything—perhaps even Strongminds measured by Wellbys ;). I know from experience how hard it is as someone running an NGO not to lean (or even swing) towards measures which will seem to favour your own intervention above others.
In theory people will always prefer cash because they can spend it on whatever they want (unless of course it is difficult to buy what they most want). This isn’t really up for debate.
What is up for debate is if people actually spend money in a way that most effectively improves their welfare. It sounds paternalistic to say, but I suspect they don’t for the reasons Nick and others have given.
Great comment, I appreciate this perspective and have definitely updated towards thinking the 10x gap is more explainable than I thought.
I do note that some of the examples you gave still leave me wondering if the families would rather just have the cash. Sure, perhaps it would be spent on high-priority and perhaps social signal-y things like weddings. But if they can’t currently afford to send all their kids to school or other medical treatment, I wonder if they’d sensibly rather have the cash to spend on those things than a bednet.
(Also, my understanding from surveys of cash recipients is that most do spend their money on essentials or investments.)
Oh I’m almost sure they would rather have the cash, I’m not arguing against that. And yes the evidence is clear that they mostly spend it on essentials—I would argue most of the items considered investments you see (iron roofs, motorbikes etc.) are borderline essentials anyway, or at least you could call them an investment in everyday welfare that will quickly pay dividends either in future wellbeing or financially.
Which one is more effective though depends on how much we weight preference. Give Directly (see their comment) weight the preferences of the recipients most heavily “GiveDirectly believes that the weights that should count the most are those of the specific people we’re trying to help” (Givedirectly’s “North star), while GiveWell (and myself) more heavily weight objective measures, like DALYs averted/QALYs gained and longer term financial benefits, which is where mosquito nets will dominate whatever people can spend the equivalent 5 dollars on.
For example that 5 dollars might pay for half a term’s school fees at a crappy village school (which will bring some benefit), wheras sleeping under a net for 2 years might reduce time off school and improve iron levels which helps learning and brain development, while also reducing the chance of dying or serious disability. Not too hard to see the potential 10x benefit. Apologies if this is obvious and I’m sucking eggs here.
I do wonder though how much motivated reasoning comes into give directly’s take on impact. Obviously if we weight pure preference most heavily, cash will dominate everything—perhaps even Strongminds measured by Wellbys ;). I know from experience how hard it is as someone running an NGO not to lean (or even swing) towards measures which will seem to favour your own intervention above others.
In theory people will always prefer cash because they can spend it on whatever they want (unless of course it is difficult to buy what they most want). This isn’t really up for debate.
What is up for debate is if people actually spend money in a way that most effectively improves their welfare. It sounds paternalistic to say, but I suspect they don’t for the reasons Nick and others have given.