Denkenberger🔸 comments on How likely is a nuclear exchange between the US and Russia?

[Denkenberger🔸]

Based on this reasoning, Barrett et al. (2013) concluded that the median annual probability of inadvertent nuclear war between the US and Russia is about 0.9% (90% CI: 0.02% — 7%).

Note that when I plug this distribution into Guesstimate, I get ~0.4% median and ~1.7% mean.