The second event was elicited as a conditional probability, so the math is correct, though again, it seems that the inputs are not. (But the language used here seems not to have noted that it was conditional. I may just be confused about what it is trying to say, as it seems unclear to me. Also, the GJP report would have explicitly discussed the superforecasters’ thoughts on what may cause the question to trigger, so again, I am confused by the footnote.)
Note: I can’t discuss this, since it’s covered by an NDA, and I haven’t seen the report that OpenPhil received, but compared to what I see as a superforecaster on the questions it looks like the numbers you have from GJP are wrong.
Davidmainheim, thanks for raising this! The GJI data should be correct now — let me know if you notice any other inconsistencies.
The second event was elicited as a conditional probability, so the math is correct, though again, it seems that the inputs are not. (But the language used here seems not to have noted that it was conditional. I may just be confused about what it is trying to say, as it seems unclear to me. Also, the GJP report would have explicitly discussed the superforecasters’ thoughts on what may cause the question to trigger, so again, I am confused by the footnote.)
Davidmainheim, thanks for raising this! The GJI data should be correct now — let me know if you notice any other inconsistencies.