The reason it seems reasonable to view the future 1,000,010 years as almost exactly as uncertain as 1,000,000 years is mostly myopia. To analogize, is the ground 1,000 miles west of me more or less uneven than the ground 10 miles west of me? Maybe, maybe not—but I have a better idea of what the near-surroundings are, so it seems more known. For the long term future, we don’t have much confidence in our projections of either a million or a million an ten years, but it seems hard to understand why all the relevant uncertainties will simply go away, other than simply not being able to have any degree of resolution due to distance. (Unless we’re extinct, in which case, yeah.)
The reason it seems reasonable to view the future 1,000,010 years as almost exactly as uncertain as 1,000,000 years is mostly myopia. To analogize, is the ground 1,000 miles west of me more or less uneven than the ground 10 miles west of me? Maybe, maybe not—but I have a better idea of what the near-surroundings are, so it seems more known. For the long term future, we don’t have much confidence in our projections of either a million or a million an ten years, but it seems hard to understand why all the relevant uncertainties will simply go away, other than simply not being able to have any degree of resolution due to distance. (Unless we’re extinct, in which case, yeah.)