I’d like to hear more about why you think this causes people to take high impact jobs (what you’re measuring, what you’re observing) (or more cliche, “what do you think you know and why do you think you know it?”).
I’m asking this in the spirit of “trust but verify”: I do assume you did a good job here, and at the same time this seems to me like the main place a project like this might break, so it seems healthy to ask.
For reference of others, here’s what was said in the post:
We have various ways of measuring the inclinations of our new audience members, and almost all of them suggest that they are indeed significantly less inclined towards our advice, on average, than control groups of people that didn’t find us through our active outreach efforts.
However, so long as we are still getting a good proportion of high-inclination traffic too (which it looks like we are), these efforts probably still look worth it.
Our internal calculations of the value of this work take into account this expected decrease in inclination (and we think it looks good overall).
All that said, the inclination of the new users we get from our outreach is a top priority, which we will continue to monitor.
Still, as I said elsewhere, seems really promising
Hey Yonatan —I think the more relevant part of my post is the following, which hopefully answers your question? Let me know if it doesn’t.
There are some details I can’t give because (as I said in the post) I don’t have permission from the relevant people to talk about it publicly.
We can’t be sure how many additional people will change to a high-impact career as a result, in large part because we have found that “career plan changes” of this kind take, on average, about 2 years from first hearing about 80k.
Still, our current best guess is that these efforts will have been pretty effective at helping people switch careers to more impactful areas.
Partly this guess is based on the growth in new audience members that we’ve seen (plus 80k’s solid track record of getting new people to eventually switch to more impactful careers), and partly it’s based on a few “proof of concept” switches we’ve seen already.
For example, some small-scale social media ads which 80k ran in 2017 as an experiment led to at least one person switching to a career we’re especially excited about (and 70 people who reported changing their career plans due to 80k).[3] We’ve also already encountered[4] several people who found us via our marketing who seem likely to switch to a more impactful career.[5]
I’d like to hear more about why you think this causes people to take high impact jobs (what you’re measuring, what you’re observing) (or more cliche, “what do you think you know and why do you think you know it?”).
I’m asking this in the spirit of “trust but verify”: I do assume you did a good job here, and at the same time this seems to me like the main place a project like this might break, so it seems healthy to ask.
For reference of others, here’s what was said in the post:
Still, as I said elsewhere, seems really promising
Hey Yonatan —I think the more relevant part of my post is the following, which hopefully answers your question? Let me know if it doesn’t.
There are some details I can’t give because (as I said in the post) I don’t have permission from the relevant people to talk about it publicly.