Hmm, 10k$ is maybe too small size to be worth it, but I might be down to do:
You transfer $50k to me now.
If AIs aren’t able to automate a typical senior individual contributor software engineer / research engineer by 2031 (based on either credible reports about what’s happening inside AI companies or testing of externally deployed systems), I send $75k to you. ($75k = $50k * (1 + 1⁄5) * (1.045^5.5) The 1.045 comes from interest rates.)
More precise operationalization: typical in AI development or some other moderate importance sector where the software engineering doesn’t require vision. Also, the AI needs to be able to automate what this job looked like in 2025 (as this job might evolve over time with AI capabilities to be what AIs can’t do).
I’d like to bet on a milestone that triggers before it’s too late for human intervention if possible, so I’ve picked this research engineer milestone. We’d presuambly have to operationalize further. I’m not sure if I think it’s worth the time to try to operationalize enough that we could do a bet.
Thanks for the suggestion, Ryan! 50 k$ is a large fraction of my savings, so it would not work for me. Moreover, I agree software engineering will be largely automated until 2031. I am just very sceptical that this will lead to a growth explosion. I guess my probability of it being automated more than e.g. 99 % is much lower than yours, but this may be hard to operationalise. The bet does not have to resolve in time for human intervention for it to be financially positive for you if I transfer money to you now? I wonder whether you expect the annual unemployment rate, globally or in the United States (US), to be much higher in 2027. In the US, it was 4 % in 2024, and I would say the probability of it being higher than 8 % in 2027 is lower than 1⁄3.
Stocks grew 5 % per year from 1900 to 2022, and I think they will grow faster over the next 5 years, maybe around 10 % per year. So I would want to use an interest rate higher than yours of 4.5 %.
Thanks, Ryan.
I remain open to bets against short AI timelines, or what they supposedly imply, up to 10 k$.
Hmm, 10k$ is maybe too small size to be worth it, but I might be down to do:
You transfer $50k to me now.
If AIs aren’t able to automate a typical senior individual contributor software engineer / research engineer by 2031 (based on either credible reports about what’s happening inside AI companies or testing of externally deployed systems), I send $75k to you. ($75k = $50k * (1 + 1⁄5) * (1.045^5.5) The 1.045 comes from interest rates.)
More precise operationalization: typical in AI development or some other moderate importance sector where the software engineering doesn’t require vision. Also, the AI needs to be able to automate what this job looked like in 2025 (as this job might evolve over time with AI capabilities to be what AIs can’t do).
I’d like to bet on a milestone that triggers before it’s too late for human intervention if possible, so I’ve picked this research engineer milestone. We’d presuambly have to operationalize further. I’m not sure if I think it’s worth the time to try to operationalize enough that we could do a bet.
Thanks for the suggestion, Ryan! 50 k$ is a large fraction of my savings, so it would not work for me. Moreover, I agree software engineering will be largely automated until 2031. I am just very sceptical that this will lead to a growth explosion. I guess my probability of it being automated more than e.g. 99 % is much lower than yours, but this may be hard to operationalise. The bet does not have to resolve in time for human intervention for it to be financially positive for you if I transfer money to you now? I wonder whether you expect the annual unemployment rate, globally or in the United States (US), to be much higher in 2027. In the US, it was 4 % in 2024, and I would say the probability of it being higher than 8 % in 2027 is lower than 1⁄3.
Stocks grew 5 % per year from 1900 to 2022, and I think they will grow faster over the next 5 years, maybe around 10 % per year. So I would want to use an interest rate higher than yours of 4.5 %.