Thanks. Do they actually give probability distributions for deep learning being the wrong paradigm for AGI, or anything similar to that?
It looks Ege Erdil said 50% for that question, or something close to that question.
Ajeya Cotra said much less than 50%, but she didn’t say how much less.
I didn’t see Daniel Kokotajlo give a number in that post, but then we have the 30-40% number he gave above, on the 80,000 Hours Podcast.
The probability distributions shown in the graphs at the top of the post are only an indirect proxy for that question. For example, despite Kokotajlo’s percentage being 30-40%, he still thinks that will most likely only slow down AGI by 5-10 years.
I’m just looking at the post very briefly and not reading the whole thing, so I might have missed the key parts you’re referring to.
Was there another example before this? Steven Byrnes commented on one of my posts from October and we had an extended back-and-forth, so I’m a little bit familiar with his views.
Thanks. Do they actually give probability distributions for deep learning being the wrong paradigm for AGI, or anything similar to that?
It looks Ege Erdil said 50% for that question, or something close to that question.
Ajeya Cotra said much less than 50%, but she didn’t say how much less.
I didn’t see Daniel Kokotajlo give a number in that post, but then we have the 30-40% number he gave above, on the 80,000 Hours Podcast.
The probability distributions shown in the graphs at the top of the post are only an indirect proxy for that question. For example, despite Kokotajlo’s percentage being 30-40%, he still thinks that will most likely only slow down AGI by 5-10 years.
I’m just looking at the post very briefly and not reading the whole thing, so I might have missed the key parts you’re referring to.
Here’s another example of someone in the LessWrong community thinking that LLMs won’t scale to AGI.
Was there another example before this? Steven Byrnes commented on one of my posts from October and we had an extended back-and-forth, so I’m a little bit familiar with his views.