maybe something on the order of 10% of their income
Not sure how much it matters, but the blog post mentions $10,000 to GiveWell alone, which was likely significantly more than 10% of a graduate student’s income.
$1B is a very low number over 4-5 years, given their wealth and how much it could grow
Yeah I agree, for what it’s worth I would expect (with low confidence) they’ll donate significantly more. But in general, for most planning, it doesn’t matter how much they give in relative terms but in absolute terms.
I would bet that Dario Amodei makes <$1B in donations before June 2027, self-reported
Something interesting/​unique about Anthropic’s situation is that all 7 cofounders are now likely worth >$10B, so even if Dario doesn’t donate much there’s still a good chance others do (but obviously they’re correlated.)
Personally, I’m most uncertain about whether they’ll end up donating significantly to improve the welfare of biological beings vs focusing on digital beings. I expect them to take machine welfare quite seriously and increasingly so, and that to be something that markets and other funders won’t care as much about.
I think it’s also possible that they end up donating after 2027, timing donations around a potential critical transition period, and of course they have strong incentives to focus most of their capital on winning the race.
Thanks!
Not sure how much it matters, but the blog post mentions $10,000 to GiveWell alone, which was likely significantly more than 10% of a graduate student’s income.
Yeah I agree, for what it’s worth I would expect (with low confidence) they’ll donate significantly more. But in general, for most planning, it doesn’t matter how much they give in relative terms but in absolute terms.
A larger update for me was looking at GiveWell’s public board meeting records, in particular Daniela Amodei is the person evaluating GiveWell’s CEO, and seems an active board member here
Something interesting/​unique about Anthropic’s situation is that all 7 cofounders are now likely worth >$10B, so even if Dario doesn’t donate much there’s still a good chance others do (but obviously they’re correlated.)
Personally, I’m most uncertain about whether they’ll end up donating significantly to improve the welfare of biological beings vs focusing on digital beings. I expect them to take machine welfare quite seriously and increasingly so, and that to be something that markets and other funders won’t care as much about.
I think it’s also possible that they end up donating after 2027, timing donations around a potential critical transition period, and of course they have strong incentives to focus most of their capital on winning the race.