I think the case for the Black Death is reasonable but I don’t think counterexamples are very strong evidence here, since I doubt anybody has a 99-1 prior here. I imagine even the extremes of the debate is between 52-48 or maybe 50-50 vs 95-5 or 90-10 priors.
I think the case for the Black Death is reasonable but I don’t think counterexamples are very strong evidence here, since I doubt anybody has a 99-1 prior here. I imagine even the extremes of the debate is between 52-48 or maybe 50-50 vs 95-5 or 90-10 priors.