[Question] How likely is a US war with Iran?

I haven’t been fol­low­ing this story too closely, but it seems like peo­ple in the Trump ad­min (speci­fi­cally John Bolton and Mike Pom­peo) are do­ing ev­ery­thing they can to gin up a war with Iran (with the help of House In­tel­li­gence Com­mit­tee Chair Adam Schiff). Trump has shown signs of ac­tu­ally want­ing to avoid war through­out his term, but peo­ple like Bolton have made it their life’s work to pro­voke wars (https://​​www.newyorker.com/​​mag­a­z­ine/​​2019/​​05/​​06/​​john-bolton-on-the-warpath). There are se­ri­ous echoes of the build-up to the war with Iraq (e.g. claims of cred­ible in­tel­li­gence show­ing Iran was re­spon­si­ble for at­tack­ing ships in the strait of Hor­muz).

I haven’t seen much EA dis­cus­sion of this or found re­lated ques­tions in bet­ting mar­kets or the good judg­ment pro­ject. The prospect of war with Iran (a much stronger, larger coun­try than Iraq) led by an even more cruel and in­com­pe­tent ad­minis­tra­tion is hor­rify­ing. This is the most rea­son­able place I know of on the in­ter­net, so I wanted to see what peo­ple here thought.

No answers.