I sometimes think that even if I managed to convince everyone to shift from median 2050 to median 2032 (an obviously unlikely scenario!)
Just in case any readers would misinterpret that statement: I’m pretty sure that what Daniel is saying is unlikely is not that TAI will be built in 2032, but rather that he would be able to convince to shift their median to that date. I think Daniel’s median for when TAI will be built is indeed somewhere around 2032 or perhaps sooner. (I think that based on conversations around October and this post. Daniel can of course correct me if I’m wrong!)
(Maybe no readers would’ve misinterpreted Daniel anyway and this is just a weird comment...)
Yep, my current median is something like 2032. It fluctuates depending on how I estimate it, sometimes I adjust it up or down a bit based on how I’m feeling in the moment and recent updates, etc.
Just in case any readers would misinterpret that statement: I’m pretty sure that what Daniel is saying is unlikely is not that TAI will be built in 2032, but rather that he would be able to convince to shift their median to that date. I think Daniel’s median for when TAI will be built is indeed somewhere around 2032 or perhaps sooner. (I think that based on conversations around October and this post. Daniel can of course correct me if I’m wrong!)
(Maybe no readers would’ve misinterpreted Daniel anyway and this is just a weird comment...)
Yep, my current median is something like 2032. It fluctuates depending on how I estimate it, sometimes I adjust it up or down a bit based on how I’m feeling in the moment and recent updates, etc.