“In most of these cases I’m still on very good terms with the person” is a hard statement to falsify. Unless Owen somehow pre-commits to who the individuals are in a way that could be revealed if necessary, we wouldn’t know if someone who came forward was one of the four. More importantly, it may be logistically and emotionally difficult for these four people to come forward in a way that protects their anonymity and allows us assurance that they are who they claim to be.
It takes just two people coming forward to falsify the statement instead of more than four, so the statement is more falsifiable than it could be.
(Another way in which it’s more falsifiable than it could be is because it makes claims about him still being on good terms with several people he has expressed interest in, which is falsifiable if the community health team or investigators were to ask him to mention the names of these people and then go talk to them. I’m not saying they need to do this – I’m just saying it’s good if people open themselves up to potential falsifiability.)
My experience is that people who habitually lie and deceive rarely constrain their options unnecessarily in this way. I want to emphasize that I see this as quite a strong pattern.”Keeping your cards hidden” is something I see really a lot in people I’d classify as bad actors. I’ve seen other apologies in similar context where this difference is like day and night.
This isn’t to say that signals like that can never be faked. It’s perfectly possible to hold both of the following views at once: (1) Some aspects of the apology are reassuring signals. (2) No matter how reassuring an apology is by itself, it makes sense to look into things a lot more, especially if there’s the possibility of a pattern.
“In most of these cases I’m still on very good terms with the person” is a hard statement to falsify. Unless Owen somehow pre-commits to who the individuals are in a way that could be revealed if necessary, we wouldn’t know if someone who came forward was one of the four. More importantly, it may be logistically and emotionally difficult for these four people to come forward in a way that protects their anonymity and allows us assurance that they are who they claim to be.
It takes just two people coming forward to falsify the statement instead of more than four, so the statement is more falsifiable than it could be.
(Another way in which it’s more falsifiable than it could be is because it makes claims about him still being on good terms with several people he has expressed interest in, which is falsifiable if the community health team or investigators were to ask him to mention the names of these people and then go talk to them. I’m not saying they need to do this – I’m just saying it’s good if people open themselves up to potential falsifiability.)
My experience is that people who habitually lie and deceive rarely constrain their options unnecessarily in this way. I want to emphasize that I see this as quite a strong pattern.”Keeping your cards hidden” is something I see really a lot in people I’d classify as bad actors. I’ve seen other apologies in similar context where this difference is like day and night.
This isn’t to say that signals like that can never be faked. It’s perfectly possible to hold both of the following views at once: (1) Some aspects of the apology are reassuring signals. (2) No matter how reassuring an apology is by itself, it makes sense to look into things a lot more, especially if there’s the possibility of a pattern.