Thanks for this excellent piece James. I had thought the trends were more positive than this, and am disheartened to hear that I was wrong.
One additional set of graphs I think would help set context is on the number of animals subject to some of the worst practices (e.g. battery hens). Many campaigns have been focused on avoiding some of the worst harms of factory farming, so presumably campaigners feel that reducing these practices is a big win. If so, we should be measuring it, celebrating the successes, and also putting them in context of the other big trends.
For longterm trend analysis, it would also be useful to have a geographic breakdown. e.g. if one of the main arguments for a good longterm outcome is a kind of ethical eating Kuznets curve — that as economic development increases, people first cause more harm to animals per capita, but then this decreases again. If so, we would expect to see this first in economically developed countries and measuring this would be helpful for understanding the timescale / income needed to bend that curve back down. And if there isn’t any evidence of a Kuznets curve, that would be very important to know too!
Thanks for the kind words Toby! Yes, sadly the trends are not particularly positive at all.
There actually is some useful OWID data on hens and sadly it’s not particularly positive on a global level (they estimate at least 3 billion in cages but I’ve heard this is likely an under-estimate and it’s closer to 4-5 billion).
That said, there is certainly progress in the US and Western Europe, covered in this Vox article. The US cage-free percentage is around 42% now and I believe all cage-free progress across US and Europe equates to around 300 million hens out of cages relative to a couple of decades ago—a huge victory for animals and the animal advocacy movement as you note.
In terms of the Kuznets curve, that’s definitely interesting and I agree it’s worth considering if there is some element of progress in economically developed countries which will hopefully be matched as other countries develop. I think this is fairly clear for things like getting rid of some of the worst farming practices e.g. battery cages or gestation crates for pigs which has seen considerable success across the US and Europe. However, it’s less clear on the meat consumption side of things as only Germany has seen a notable decline in meat consumption in the past 30 or 40 years (although we have seen a levelling off in the US and Europe which is some positive sign). That said, there is more chicken being eaten in most of these countries which likely means more animals farmed and killed overall. As such, I’m not convinced we have signs of a Kuznets curve for total animal suffering as it’s quite likely the improvements we’ve made in outlawing some of the worst practices like battery cages are offset by increased chicken consumption.
Thanks for this excellent piece James. I had thought the trends were more positive than this, and am disheartened to hear that I was wrong.
One additional set of graphs I think would help set context is on the number of animals subject to some of the worst practices (e.g. battery hens). Many campaigns have been focused on avoiding some of the worst harms of factory farming, so presumably campaigners feel that reducing these practices is a big win. If so, we should be measuring it, celebrating the successes, and also putting them in context of the other big trends.
For longterm trend analysis, it would also be useful to have a geographic breakdown. e.g. if one of the main arguments for a good longterm outcome is a kind of ethical eating Kuznets curve — that as economic development increases, people first cause more harm to animals per capita, but then this decreases again. If so, we would expect to see this first in economically developed countries and measuring this would be helpful for understanding the timescale / income needed to bend that curve back down. And if there isn’t any evidence of a Kuznets curve, that would be very important to know too!
Thanks for the kind words Toby! Yes, sadly the trends are not particularly positive at all.
There actually is some useful OWID data on hens and sadly it’s not particularly positive on a global level (they estimate at least 3 billion in cages but I’ve heard this is likely an under-estimate and it’s closer to 4-5 billion).
That said, there is certainly progress in the US and Western Europe, covered in this Vox article. The US cage-free percentage is around 42% now and I believe all cage-free progress across US and Europe equates to around 300 million hens out of cages relative to a couple of decades ago—a huge victory for animals and the animal advocacy movement as you note.
In terms of the Kuznets curve, that’s definitely interesting and I agree it’s worth considering if there is some element of progress in economically developed countries which will hopefully be matched as other countries develop. I think this is fairly clear for things like getting rid of some of the worst farming practices e.g. battery cages or gestation crates for pigs which has seen considerable success across the US and Europe. However, it’s less clear on the meat consumption side of things as only Germany has seen a notable decline in meat consumption in the past 30 or 40 years (although we have seen a levelling off in the US and Europe which is some positive sign). That said, there is more chicken being eaten in most of these countries which likely means more animals farmed and killed overall. As such, I’m not convinced we have signs of a Kuznets curve for total animal suffering as it’s quite likely the improvements we’ve made in outlawing some of the worst practices like battery cages are offset by increased chicken consumption.