Historically, there have been ~24 Republicans vs ~19 Democrats as senators (and 1 independent) from Oregon, so partisan affiliation doesn’t seem that important.
A better way of looking at this is the partisan lean of his particular district. The answer is D+7, meaning that in a neutral environment (i.e. an equal number of Democratic and Republican votes nationally), a Democrat would be expected to win this district by 7 percentage points.
This year is likely to be a Republican “wave” year, i.e. Republicans are likely to outperform Democrats (the party out of power almost always overperforms in midterm elections); however, D+7 is a substantial lean that’s hard to overcome. I’d give Carrick a 75% chance of winning the general election conditional on winning the primary. His biggest challenge is winning the primary election.
A better way of looking at this is the partisan lean of his particular district. The answer is D+7, meaning that in a neutral environment (i.e. an equal number of Democratic and Republican votes nationally), a Democrat would be expected to win this district by 7 percentage points.
This year is likely to be a Republican “wave” year, i.e. Republicans are likely to outperform Democrats (the party out of power almost always overperforms in midterm elections); however, D+7 is a substantial lean that’s hard to overcome. I’d give Carrick a 75% chance of winning the general election conditional on winning the primary. His biggest challenge is winning the primary election.